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Louisville vs Florida State
#575 Louisville +125 over Florida State

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +125 BET365 +125 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +125

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament - Barclays Center - Brooklyn, New York

12:00 PM EST. Many pundits would have you believe that Florida State is quite likely to make the NCAA's regardless of what happens here in Brooklyn. However, if the Seminoles get caught reading their press clippings and go one-and-done in this ACC tournament, it could be a long and disappointing selection Sunday. A closer looks at Florida State's schedule shows that this team played some very weak non-conference opposition that ranks 332 out of the 351 teams graded by KenPom. The Seminoles made headlines after starting the season 9-0, but they were just snacking at the cupcake buffet and that soft scheduling did them no favors when the meat grinder that is ACC play began. FSU went just 9-9 in conference play. Consistency during conference play was a huge issue for the Seminoles, as they never got more than one-game above .500, despite a run of three straight Ws in January. These two played twice this season with each side winning by four points on the other teams home floor.

The 2017-18 season was a tumultuous one for the Louisville Cardinals. The season began with the firing of head coach Rick Pitino after it became clear he was involved in the NCAA's latest 'pay for play' scandal, which has now spread throughout Division I hoops. On the floor, the Cardinals stumbled and bumbled to the finish line going just 3-7 in their last 10 games to end the season, which plays into our wheelhouse of buying low. Louisville finds themselves in unfamiliar territory as the #9 seed in this ACC tournament. This is the lowest seed Louisville has had in a conference tournament since it was still in the old Big East in 2006. The Cardinals also finds itself on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, so expect them to play desperate ball today with a big chip on their shoulder while FSU has not shown us a big enough desire to play at a high level. We’re calling the outright upset.

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Our Pick

#575 Louisville +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)