Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST.
7:00 PM EST. On the surface, it might seem odd that the market is backing a team like the Dukes in unison tonight, but a closer looks show this squad has kept things close against the Bonnies as of late. The last five meetings between these two teams have been decided by single digits including one earlier this month when Duquesne covered as a small home pooch. Tonight, oddsmakers slapped a baker's dozen on this game, and the market has eaten the Dukes up, bringing that number down considerably. Do not be influenced by the recent result between these two teams. There is a reason the Dukes opened taking back a number this large, and it's because they are not very good. Duquesne has lost four straight and only won one of its last six road games. This is a bad spot for the Dukes against a motivated side that only has to win out against much weaker competition to secure its invitation to the dance. If the Selection Committee was picking the field today, the Bonnies would be in and that’s a spot they are not going to give up easily.
The case against St. Bonaventure tonight stems from its big signature win over ranked Rhode Island last Saturday, but we don't think coach Mark Schmidt is going allow them to breathe easier for a second. The Bonnies aren't likely to catch the first-place Rams (despite the win on the weekend) for a regular season championship, but they are featured as an 11-seed in CBS's bracketology breakdown this week. That ranking means nothing today but it does confirm that it does not leave room for error the rest of the way. St. Bonaventure isn't a program that is asked to spot a price like this very often, but the three times that oddsmakers did hang double-digits on this team in conference play, it went 2-1 after only failing to cover in a nine-point win over Richmond as a 10-point favorite. The Bonnies defense is adept at forcing turnovers, and Schmidt's starting backcourt of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley holds the added distinction of doubling as the preseason All-Atlantic 10 first team's guard duo. The low-turnover backcourt, the offensive-rebounding frontcourt and the all-around team defense are all great qualities coming down the backstretch. St. Bonaventure has legitimate bracket-busting potential, and it isn't going to give the committee any reason to deny it a ticket to the dance. In this game tonight, the Bonnies can name the score. Eat the points with confidence.
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#724 ST. BONAVENTURE -10 -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)