Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:00 PM EST.
7:00 PM EST. We usually are not on the #1 team in the country because there is almost always a serious premium to play but there are exceptions and this one prompts us to switch gears. This past Saturday on Super Bowl weekend, the Johnnies against Duke was the feature game at 12:00 PM EST to get things started. Duke was a 10½-point favorite in the Johnnies barn and the market watched in horror, as the Red Storm won outright to not only snap an 11-game losing streak but also to get its first win in Big East play this season. The first of many parlay tickets on Saturday were ripped up, as the underdogs prevailed from coast to coast, starting early in New York City and continuing until the final shot of the night out in Seattle. Four of the country’s proudest programs -- Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and Arizona-- fell to unranked teams. No. 12 Oklahoma also lost to unranked Texas, and others in the top 10 (Purdue, Michigan State) flirted with similar disasters. We absolutely warned you about that on Saturday and now we’ll take it a step further and try and capitalize.
The market often plays what they saw last, which in turn provides us with this great opportunity. Duke had North Carolina up next (tonight) and figured all they had to do to beat the Johnnies was show up. Coach K called his teams’ performance “disgusting”. Additionally, the Johnnies gave Villanova a hard time roughly three weeks ago at MSG, as Villanova had fits beating them by just seven. That, too, works to our advantage here because Villanova has been reminded not once but twice to not take this invader lightly. Aside from that, the Red Strom are in a massive letdown spot here. One sometimes must be reminded that these are not pros. These are school kids with raw emotions and a big win like that on National TV against a storied program like Duke will be one of the highlights of their lives. The fans stormed the court and the players have still not come down from it. To ask them to go into Villanova’s crib and put forth a similar effort is not reasonable. Again, we point out that Duke was 10½ at MSG and now the #1 ranked Wildcats are just 5½-points more at home. The Johnnies have never been riper to lose by 30 or more.
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#736 VILLANOVA -16 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)