Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
3:00 PM EST. This one sets up well to recommend a play on this massive favorite because the market is being fooled into taking the points. You see, South Florida is coming off a five-point win in Tulane while Houston just went into Tulane and lost outright. Now the team that just beat Tulane is being offered 21 points (!) against the team that just lost to Tulane. Unlike most of this market, we’re ignoring all of that because it’s not relevant. The Cougars very simply got caught looking ahead to Wichita State, which just happened to be its biggest game in a very long time. Incidentally, after losing to Tulane, the Cougars beat Wichita State by 14 points. That’s the real Cougars, not the one that lost to Tulane.
Rob Gray is a contender for American Athletic Conference player of the year honors, and the offense he leads has taken on the character of the 6-foot-1 scoring point guard. Houston takes care of the ball and hits its 3s. Defenses preoccupied with Gray find they also have to cope with Corey Davis, Armoni Brooks and Wes VanBeck, all of whom are shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. Most of all, Kelvin Sampson's offense is helped along by its sheer volume of shot attempts. With a low turnover rate and the American's second-best offensive rebound percentage in league play, Houston just gets more chances to score than its opponents do and they’ll now play one of the worst road teams in the Division I and probably the worst team in the AAC.
South Florida lost at East Carolina by 38 points. That’s almost impossible to do. They also lost at Wichita by 38 points and at SMU by 40. The list of blowout losses on the road goes on and on for the Bulls and now they’ll play this one after a road win at Tulane this past Thursday. The South Florida Bulls are likely still celebrating that out-of-nowhere win as a 13-point underdog. You may be tempted to take the points here based on recency bias but we’re cautioning you to not pay attention to those recent results. Everything was aligned for Houston to lose to the Green Wave and for the Bulls to to beat them. This is the aftermath or correction of that and it’s going to get real ugly for the visitor.
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#832 HOUSTON -21 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)