Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:00 PM EST.
7:00 PM EST. The Cyclones are coming off a huge 70-52 home win over #8 Texas Tech, and that signature victory has us looking to fade ISU in a big letdown spot on the road at Texas.
The Longhorns are licking their wounds after getting destroyed by West Virginia 86-51 in Morgantown on Saturday. That loss came right on cue for a team that has alternated W's and L's the last eight games. That kind of inconsistency does not play well in the market, but at 12-7, the Longhorns are one of the most undervalued teams in the country after playing the third toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. As if the Big-12 wasn't tough enough, head coach Shaka Smart ran the 'Horns through the meat grinder during non-conference play, with games against Duke, Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan and Smart's old stomping grounds at VCU.
Taking back 7-points with a team that appears to be in better form might look to be the prudent play, but something about this number stinks. Spotting points of any kind with a team that just got blown out by 35 is not an appealing proposition, but what would this line have been had the Longhorns hung around at West Virginia and the Red Raiders took care of business against ISU as oddsmakers expected? These two teams met in Ames three weeks ago, and the Longhorns walked away with a 74-70 overtime win. That result might make these points seem even more appealing after Texas got crushed by WVU, but we will not be swayed by those recent results. Texas is battle-tested and taking a huge step down in competition here after playing #8 Texas Tech and the aforementioned Mountaineers the last two games. Unfortunately for the Cyclones, they get caught playing Texas and the timing for the visitor is way off, as this is a response game for the ‘Horns after that aforementioned devastation. We're buying on this short priced home favorite. Hook 'em Horns.
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#724 TEXAS -7 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)