Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:15 PM EST.
7:00 PM EST. There are 351 Division I teams in college basketball and roughly 30% of those teams will play on this night. The oddsmakers make mistakes in this sport more than any other because it is virtually impossible to have tight lines every night in every game. Iowa favored in Rutgers last night was a prime example of that and UIC favored in Youngstown State is right behind it. The Flames are wrongly being billed as the chalk because they are 8-11 overall while the Penguins of Youngstown State are 5-14. Win/loss records continue to provide us with great opportunities and this is another one, as the market continues to play results while we keep preaching to play ingredients and not results.
The Flames are 3-3 in the Horizon League while winning three of their last four games. However, three of their last four games have also been at home. On the road, UIC is just 1-7 this season. In their out-of-conference strength of schedule (SOS), the Flames rank 224th in the country, thus their overall record is misleading and their road record is even worse than it appears.
By contrast, YSU’s out of conference strength of schedule ranks 66th in the country, which is 158 positions better or tougher than UIC’s 224th ranked SOS. Furthermore, the Penguins have played nine of their past 11 games on the road but in their two home games over that span, they defeated Green Bay by 11 and Milwaukee by nine. In fact, the Penguins have played 19 games this year with only five of those coming at home, where they are 4-1. The Penguins 5-14 record has them undervalued in a big way. The Penguins play hard, they play fast, they’ve played a much tougher schedule than the Flames and they are getting some good lessons on the road. YSU has had several leads in many of their losses and even had six players all scoring in double figures in a few of those games including its last contest against Detroit Mercy. UIC is an inferior team on the road and spotting points. That’s incorrect.
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#514 YOUNGSTOWN ST +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)