Pinnacle  -4½ -110 BET365   -4½ -110 Sportsinteraction  -4½ -110   888port  -4½ -110

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Oklahoma City -4½ over Denver

Ball Arena – Denver, CO

Game 6 – Western Conference Semifinals

Series: Thunder lead 3–2

10:00 PM ET. We’re not here to write a fairytale about the defending champs. We’re here to expose a market inefficiency, and we’ll gladly take a discounted price on a younger, deeper, more dangerous team that’s now proven it can close out Denver in crunch time.

Nikola Jokic had to drop 44 and 15 just to keep the Nuggets alive in Game 5 — and they still lost. He’s exhausted. Jamal Murray is running on fumes. Michael Porter Jr. can barely lift his left arm, let alone his shooting motion. Denver played four guys 37 minutes or more while OKC once again got contributions across the board with a longer rotation. That’s been the difference in this series — not the stars, but the legs.

The Nuggets used to be able to flip the switch in the final minutes, but not anymore. OKC has flipped that script completely. Denver was up in the fourth quarter in Games 4 and 5. They lost both. The Thunder have made their adjustments, and they’ve paid off — coach Mark Daigneault’s group has shifted the matchup pressure onto Jokic’s supporting cast, and they’re wilting.

Take this in: Jokic and Gordon shot 60% in Game 5. The rest of the team shot 28%. Twenty-eight percent. One of those guys is Christian Braun. Another is Reggie Jackson. This is the postseason — you can’t hide that kind of inefficiency. OKC is tilting the floor and asking Denver’s least-trusted options to beat them. Spoiler: they can’t.

So here we are, a closeout game on the road, and we’re spotting -4.5 with the better, younger, deeper, and more dynamic team. Why is the number so short? Because it’s a closeout game on the road, and the market is conditioned to trust Denver’s playoff resume. But resumes don’t win games — legs do. Execution does. Shot quality does. And no team is generating better shots down the stretch than Oklahoma City.

This line is shaded because of perceived desperation from the Nuggets. But desperation doesn’t create bench depth. Desperation doesn’t heal shoulders or lungs or knees. What we have here is a Denver team that’s given everything it has over the last two games and is still down 3–2. OKC, meanwhile, just keeps getting better. The margin might be tight, but the edge is clear. We faded the Nuggets in Game 5 and saw everything we needed to see. We’re sticking with it.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose.