Pinnacle -6 -102 BET365 -6 -110 Sportsinteraction -6 -110 888Sport -6 -110

Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Houston -6 over Golden State

Toyota Center - Houston, TX

8:00 PM ET. There’s a lot to unpack here, so let’s get to it. For years, the Rockets were little more than Golden State’s personal punching bag. Up until last December, the Warriors had rattled off 15 straight wins against Houston, treating them like a hacky sack at a summer festival. Then, finally, the Rockets caught a break, squeaking out a 91-90 win in a game that could have gone either way. And while Houston technically snapped the streak, the market hasn’t fully bought in. After all, Golden State has still covered eight of the last nine against Houston, and with the Warriors coming off a loss they feel they should have won in Dallas last night, the narrative is clear: bounce-back spot. That’s what the betting public sees, and they’re eating it up. The fact that this is the biggest underdog Golden State has been in recent memory only sweetens the deal for them. But we’ve seen this trap before, and we’re not biting.

Yes, both teams played last night, so it might seem like they’re on equal footing. They’re not. Houston has been parked at home for five straight days, while Golden State is on the sixth leg of a road trip, playing their sixth road game in eight nights. Let that sink in. Their itinerary reads like a rock band on tour—Utah, L.A., Chicago, Milwaukee, Dallas, and now Houston. That’s not just a road trip; that’s a mileage marathon. And while Houston got to sleep in their own beds last night, the Warriors probably spent their morning figuring out what city they were even in.

You might hear how Golden State went on a 13-2 run late against Dallas last night before making uncharacteristic mistakes in crunch time. Could exhaustion have played a role? You bet. Now, they’re stepping into a hostile Houston crowd against a team that is salivating at the chance to prove December’s win was no fluke. The Rockets and their fans haven’t forgotten years of torment at the hands of the Warriors, and you can bet they’ll treat this as a statement game.

Golden State’s name still carries weight in the market, but the truth is they’re running on fumes, and the oddsmakers know it. This line is where it is for a reason. The Warriors are being priced like the powerhouse of old, but that team isn’t walking through the door tonight.

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