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Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

L.A. Clippers -4½ over Memphis

Intuit Dome – Los Angeles, CA

10:30 PM ET. We’ll keep this simple: Memphis is a market darling. The Grizzlies boast the best against-the-spread (ATS) record in the NBA at 35-18, sit atop the Southwest Division, and hold the second-best record in the Western Conference (36-17). They’ve won eight of their last ten and covered seven of those games. On paper, they look like a no-brainer, even on the second night of a back-to-back. So why are they getting points here against a Clippers team that has been just 5-5 ATS in their last 10? Because it’s a trap.

The betting math doesn’t add up. Memphis is actually taking back fewer points than they should be. Teams that crush the spread like the Grizzlies inevitably become overvalued, either by laying inflated numbers or receiving deflated lines. The books know the public loves a hot team, and this is the moment they cash in on that bias.

Need proof? Just look at Portland on Saturday. The Trail Blazers had been printing money for bettors, covering non-stop, and opened as a +6 dog against Minnesota. The line got bet down to +4.5 because the public couldn’t resist. What happened? The Timberwolves blew them out by 16. Now, Memphis is taking back its highest number in two and a half months—exactly the kind of setup that has crushed public bettors time and again.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are rested—they’ve had four full days to prepare. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, just played last night, grinding out a 119-112 win at Phoenix as a 3.5-point favorite. The market isn’t accounting for the rest disparity, the travel, or the fact that Memphis is due for regression. Instead, all the focus is on the easy, low-hanging fruit: "Memphis is too good to be an underdog here!" The Clippers will be more than happy to answer that skepticism emphatically. And the best part? We’re getting them at a discount while they do it. Underlay.

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