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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Golden State -6½ over Milwaukee

Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, WI

8:00 PM ET. We’re not in the habit of spotting points on the road, but there are exceptions. This is one of them. Here’s a fun tidbit: this line was posted before Milwaukee even finished its game against Philadelphia. The Bucks, as 3.5-point underdogs, won that game 135-127, yet the line for this game didn’t budge. Why? Because the oddsmakers aren’t in the business of charity—they’re taking a strong position against the Bucks here, and we’re more than happy to follow their lead.

Sure, the Bucks are on the second half of a back-to-back, but even if we ignore that, why is Golden State favored by this much? The Warriors haven’t exactly been lighting the world on fire. They lost to Utah last Wednesday (yikes), followed that up with a primetime loss to the Lakers, and then beat Chicago on Saturday—which is about as impressive as beating a group of interns in a rec league. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is a playoff team playing at home, yet they opened as significant underdogs?

That alone is enough to back Golden State, but let’s break it down further. The Bucks are built in the Warriors' image—they live and die by the three, ranking second in the NBA in three-point percentage (38.9%). If the shots fall, great. If they don’t, disaster. The problem? The Warriors also shoot the three well, but unlike Milwaukee, they actually rebound. Golden State ranks third in rebounding; the Bucks rank 26th. That means if the shots aren’t dropping for Milwaukee, Golden State will limit their second chances while securing extra opportunities for themselves. That’s a death sentence for a team like the Bucks. Swallow the points.

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