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Posted at 2:00 PM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Charlotte +5½ over L.A. Lakers

Spectrum Center – Charlotte, NC

7:00 PM ET. The betting market is often influenced by recent performances and headline-worthy results, both of which favor the Lakers here. Los Angeles enters this matchup on the heels of an impressive 118-108 win at Golden State, where they pulled away in the third quarter and neutralized Stephen Curry in the second half. Before that, the Lakers dominated the reigning NBA Champion Boston Celtics, winning by 21 in Los Angeles. With the Lakers also boasting a 7-3 record in their last ten meetings with Charlotte and covering in eight of those contests, the public narrative tilts heavily toward the visitors.

However, this is where we find value. Despite their high-profile wins and star power, the Lakers are just 9-12 on the road this season, with a -6.7 average margin of defeat in away games. Against the spread (ATS), the Lakers underperform significantly on the road, with an average ATS margin of -5.8. Based on these metrics, this game projects closer to a pick’em than the market suggests, making Charlotte the more appealing side at an inflated number.

The Hornets, despite their underwhelming 12-30 record, have several factors working in their favor. Charlotte dominates the boards, ranking 4th in the NBA in total rebounding, while the Lakers rank a lowly 28th in this category despite their size advantage with Anthony Davis, Rui Hachimura, and LeBron James. Defensively, the Hornets are a top-10 team in opponent field goal percentage, while the Lakers sit 24th, allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field.

Charlotte’s offense has also shown signs of life, eclipsing the 50% shooting mark in three of their last six games. While the Hornets’ overall offensive metrics are underwhelming, their recent surge in efficiency aligns with their defensive and rebounding strengths, making them a legitimate threat in this spot.

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