Posted at 1:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -8½ -109 BET365 -8½ -110 SportsInteraction -8½ -110 888Sport -8½ -110

Miami -8½ over Orlando

8:10 PM EST. The Magic might just be 19-29 when you unroll the fish wrap and find them near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, but where it matters most, at the pay window, Orlando has a pretty sparkling 27-20-1 record Against the Spread (ATS). Much of that hay was made in the last three weeks, as the Magic have covered in seven of their last nine games. In that lot are double digit wins over Boston (113-98), New Orleans (123-110) and Golden State (115-104). Last time out, the Magic won and covered in a 126-120 win over the Pacers as 5-point favorites. Dare we say that Orlando’s stock might be at its season high?

If you read any gambling publications today, the Magic are being touted because the Heat, “Haven't been playing like they are 8.5 points better than any other team in the NBA.” Miami has also built a reputation in the market as a team that “plays down” to its competition. We can’t speak to either of those points, but we’ll use those narratives as fodder, as we mine for value in The Association.

The Heat just beat the C’s as well, but it was by a narrow 98-95 margin. Prior to that, Miami had not covered in two straight and three of four, including just edging out the Zion Williamson-less Pelicans, which is not a good look. We discussed the Magic’s solid ATS record, well, the Heat are on the opposite end of that success, going just 20-27-2 against the number. With the Heat’s poor record ATS in relation to the Magic’s current run of covers, perhaps these 8½-points look like low-hanging fruit but do not be tempted. The Heat are short-priced on their home floor against an over-performing invader.

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