Minnesota @ Memphis
Memphis -6 -104 over Minnesota

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BET365 -6½ -110 SportInteraction -6½ -110 Pinnacle -6½ -104 888sport -6½ -108

Posted at 6:00 PM EST.

Memphis -6½ over Minnesota

7:30 PM EST. Grizz opened up as a seven-point fav but the efficient market has bet it down to the price you see here but that’s not why we’re on the Grizz. We’re on the Grizz because they haven’t even played that well and yet the series is still tied 2-2. Ja Morant’s numbers are way down against a weak defensive team and we have to question how long that can last. What if he goes off like he’s supposed to? The past two games, Morant averaged 13.5 points on 29% shooting, yet they won by nine points in one game and lost by a point in the other. Again, we ask, what happens when Ja Morant inevitably goes off?

It’s also worth noting that the Grizzlies capitalize off of turnovers more than any other team, and the Wolves are turning the ball over on 15.3% of their possessions in this series. Those numbers will also inevitably combine to turn one of these games into a blowout.

We’ll now turn to Game 4, where Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins said afterward, “I’ve never seen a more inconsistent, arrogantly officiated game.” Several like-minded Grizzlies offered to pay his upcoming fine.

A confluence of factors have the Timberwolves, one of the sloppiest playoff teams you’ll ever see, hanging around. Don’t get us wrong, as the T-Wolves are young, fun and very talented but you cannot play playoff basketball the way they do and expect to succeed. We have to trust that the Grizz will get favorable calls here. We have to trust that Ja Morant will come up with a dominating performance and we have to trust that the Grizz are in a foul, foul mood after the last game. Finally, the zig-zag angle is also in play here after the Grizz were heavily bet last game out and failed to cover. Those folks were a game too late and it allows us to come in and pick up the remnants at a deflated price.

Our Pick

Memphis -6 -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)