NBA Playoffs Game 6
MILWAUKEE -5½ -103 over Brooklyn

Pinnacle -5½ -103 BET365 -5½ -110 SportsInteraction -5½ -105 BetOnlin-5½ -108 Bookmaker -5½ -110

Posted at 2:00 PM EST. 

MILWAUKEE -5½ -103 over Brooklyn

8:35 PM EST. If you bet Milwaukee last game, you have every right to be angry about Milwaukee’s blowing of a 16-point halftime and mid-third quarter leads en route to losing Game 5. We could suggest that the franchise change its name from “Bucks” to “Deer in the Headlights.” One could even make an anger play on Brooklyn and root for the 3-2 Nets to put the Bucks out of their misery as payback for what they did to you on Tuesday night. But emotion needs to be kept separate from investing.

Here’s a sample of how the media is framing things: “Kevin Durant has finally, indisputably claimed title of best basketball player in the world,” according to a CBS Sports headline. This is the same media outlet that reported, prior to Game 5: “James Harden injury update: Nets star ruled out for Game 5 against Bucks with hamstring strain.” Harden played. The media knows nothing, but says anything and will often say it with certainty. We’ll just say something like this: after Kevin Durant plays all 48 minutes to score 49 points and has only one day of rest in between games, his chances of leaving a body part(s) on the floor before the next game is over probably increases. While it is truly amazing that head coach Mike Budenholzer and these Bucks couldn’t win a game in which Harden produced only 5 points in 46 minutes (hey, Budenholzer leaves P.J. Tucker on the floor for 0 points in 33 minutes to help level the playing field), the betting for this opened Milwaukee -3.5 and has moved up to -5.5. We doubt that any of the line-moving money is coming from sportswriters who cover the series and react in the direction of the most recent happening, which they consider to be a trend.

We’re first to admit that we’re not efficient market believers. We’re first in line to point out that the market is not efficient and we have tons of proof that we’ll post when the time is right. For this game, however, we’re going to trust that the majority of the market is going to taking the points after last night’s two underdogs that we’re priced in the same range, not only covered but won outright. Many intangibles are influencing the inefficient market to take the points, which is our prompt to move in on the underpriced favorite.

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Our Pick

MILWAUKEE -5½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)

Atlanta +17½ +102 over Boston