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Posted at 1:45 PM EST. 

PORTLAND -4 over Denver

10:35 PM EST. The Blazers guaranteed themselves their 1-1 road split in the mile-high arena in Game 1, prior to turning the ball over too much (21 times) in Game 2. Their shooting percentages were fine in defeat, and they also outrebounded the Nuggets. However, being -9 in turnovers while Denver had an above-average shooting night overall (53.5%) and from three-point range (42.9%) triggered a 19-point loss. Nikola Jokic was almost too good (15-for-20) from the field for Denver. Yes, he’s the strong MVP candidate, but a 75% shooting night, for a guy with a 56.6% average for the season, is a bit much and so is the recency bias that is in play here.

One of the best tools we have in the playoffs is to react to the market’s over and under-reactions to the previous game. It’s not unusual to see an underdog complacent after a Game 1 win but in this case, Portland wasn’t complacent, they just happened to run into a team that could not miss. What we know for sure is the Blazers hounded Jokic and took away his passing in Game 1. No Jamal Murray – in whose hands you’d always find the ball during the Nuggets’ strong playoff showing last season. The Blazers have Jokic covered, and Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo are the Nuggets’ starting guards playing 33 and 35 minutes respectively against Lillard and McCollum so once again, give the same massive edge to Rip City. Now add in a little home cooking and we’re going to trust that we’re getting the Blazers at a great price here.

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