San Antonio @ DENVER
San Antonio +8½ -110 over DENVER

Pinnacle +8½ -110 BET365 +8½ -110 SportsInteraction +8½ -110 BetOnlin+8½ -110

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

San Antonio +8½ -110 over DENVER

9:00 PM EST. We backed the Spurs on Wednesday night, where they closed as a 5-point pooch. That was a game, by the way, where we crushed the closing line and got buried. What did we get to show for that monumental accomplishment? Nada, other than being stuck 18 points late in the fourth quarter. Any time we see the line move in “our favor,” just like it did between the Spurs and Nuggets two nights ago, we feel sick to our stomachs. While many in this market may scoff at that opinion, and believe us, we take a ton of heat for this position, beating the closing line means you are on the same side as the “efficient market. That same night, in baseball for example, the Arizona Diamondbacks closed as a -125 favorite after opening as a +110 underdog. The efficient market got a hold of the Snakes and Arizona rewarded them with an 8-0 loss. The efficient market continues to prove that it is not efficient and we’ll put that in our back pocket for this one.

In response to that 10-point loss by the Spurs, where the efficient market knocked it down from +7 to +5, today the market has made the jump, like rats fleeing a ship, to the Nuggets. The efficient market has bet the Nuggets up to -8½ from the opening price of -6½. It's something we call “zig-zagging” and it's one of the cardinals sins you can commit in this business. An important concept is “sticking with it”, meaning, if we detected value on the Spurs at +6½ on Wednesday we sure as hell detect more value today at +8½. We made a note of that in our write-up on the Spurs on Wednesday. In case you missed it, here is the point we made:

"If the Spurs fail here, they will likely be taking back inflated points on top of inflated points when these two teams play the rematch on Friday." We’re not clairvoyant. We’re merely pointing out the market inefficiencies and will now move in. Are we guaranteed to win? Absolutely not but there is no doubt that we’re taking back inflated points and that’s always a position we can get behind.

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Our Pick

San Antonio +8½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)

L.A. Lakers/Indiana over 243½ -105
Houston -7½ -105 over Utah