Pinnacle +6½ -102 B1ET365 +6½ -110 SportsInteraction +6½ -110 BetOnline +6½ -115

Posted at 4:15 PM EST. 

San Antonio +6½ over DENVER

9:00 PM EST. The Nuggets were slow out of the gate to start the season, at least by their lofty preseason expectations, going just 17-17. Since that pedestrian start, Denver has gone 15-3 and now sits fourth in the West, just one game back of the Clippers for third. The Nuggets’ most recent success, a 134-119 drubbing of the Pistons just last night, was Denver's sixth win in a row. There is no hotter team in the NBA, which might make this number look less inflated than it is, but make no mistake, you are paying a premium to back the Nuggets tonight.

The Spurs have lost three games in a row, all at home as the betting chalk. That includes dropping overtime decisions to the Pacers and Hawks, as well as having their doors blown off by the Cavaliers, 125-101 last time out. The Spurs were an 8-point favorite over the Cavs and now they are taking back nearly that much here just one game later. That is a big swing for any team from one contest to the next.

While looking for and exploiting inflated numbers is very much in our toolbox, so too are situations that might make it difficult for those teams that are asked to cover a number to do just that. Tonight, the Nuggets will be playing their fourth game in seven nights and their second in a row. When a team has been humming like the Nuggets have been, it's really hard to keep up that pace while trying to cover a margin with the increased prices bestowed upon them. When these two teams played in Denver back at the end of January, the Nuggets were 4-point chalk. The Spurs would win that game outright 119-109. Perhaps you've read that the Nuggets may have revenge on their minds because of that game, but there is little chance anyone of them remembers that game over any of the others in the midst of this slog of a schedule. These teams are playing so many games in a short period of time that memories must be short. If the Spurs fail here, they will likely be taking back inflated points on top of inflated points when these two teams play the rematch on Friday. Denver’s stock is soaring while Spurs stock has plummeted, which is usually the right time.

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