Pinnacle +5½ -103 BET365 +5½ -110 SportsInteraction +5½ -110 5DIMES +5½ -109 Coolbet +5½ -110

Posted at 11:30 AM EST

Sacramento +5½ -103 over Houston

8:00 PM EST. Given the contrasting record and perceived quality between both sides, this number may appear a bit soft to those wishing to spot the points with the Rockets, especially after we consider all the ingredients in the build-up of this game.

Houston comes in the better rested of the two teams, as they were last in action on Friday against the LeBron James-less Los Angeles Lakers. As a 3½-point choice, “Clutch City” put on a stellar performance without one of their key talents, Russell Westbrook and dismantled the Lakers 113-97, leading by as much as 19 at one point in their victory. As a whole, outside of their 110-102 loss against Portland on August 4th, the Rockets have been cash money throughout the seeding games winning and covering in their other two tilts, first as a five-point dog against Milwaukee and in a 153-149 overtime victory against the Dallas Mavericks that saw Houston cover as a 1½-point choice in their opening outing. The Rockets recent body of work has their stock through the roof.

Sacramento’s play has been the polar opposite, which raises the question as to why Houston opened up giving just an extra point to Sac City (-4.5) when compared to a team with the market presence of the Lakers? The Kings have gone 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS over their five-game schedule in Orlando, capped off most recently by a hideous 119-106 upset loss sustained at the hands of the Brooklyn Nets. The Kings were spotting 5½ to the First Borough and got whacked by a makeshift lineup. That lowers its market appeal.

Sacramento also sits in a position where if they were to lose this game, they would be vanquished from postseason contention. We are by no means suggesting a play on Sacramento of the must-win angle, but we do suspect that the Kings will approach this game with a sense of urgency. The bigger selling point to us is that the Kings stock is low while the Rockets stock is high. To the man walking down the street, the Rockets look like easy money here, especially given the fact that H-Town has a 5-1 record against Sacramento in their last six outings where they also went 5-1 ATS. We place little stock in these useless trends but the talking heads have to sell something and that’s just another nugget they can add to their list of why you should bet Houston. Houston may indeed win and cover but the line says, “NO”. The line screams that the Rockets won’t give a f**k and probably lose outright. Wait until just before game time to bet Sac because the price will go up. If you like Houston, bet it immediately and you’ll “beat the closing line”. 

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