Pinnacle +6 -111 BET365 +6 -110 SportsInteraction +6 -110 5DIMES +6 -109 88Sport +6 -110

Posted at 11:30 AM EST

Denver +6 -111 over Oklahoma City

4:00 PM EST. Gauging market presence is a strategy we promote, as one can often detect value when applying such principles. In the case of Denver and Oklahoma City, we have a situation that sets up for a quintessential buy-low, sell-high scenario; the Nuggets being the benefactors with the Thunder being overvalued. Regardless of who was priced as the chalk or the dog in this affair, OKC will be a team that bodes less equity of the two by virtue of the fact they remain the best team in the league ATS on the year (41-24) and presently ride in on a three-game win and cover streak. The Thunder stock is heightened, as they come into this contest off an impressive 110-94 win against the Utah Jazz on Saturday that saw the Thunder close as a mere one-point choice.

On the flip-side, the Nuggets bode a sub-.500 ATS record on the year (29-33-4) and are presently riding a two-game skid both straight-up and against-the-spread. Mile High City’s lowered market presence is intensified by the Nuggets failing to come anywhere close to covering when they were routed 125-105 by the Miami Heat despite closing as just a four-point pup. The result further deflates the public perception of the Nuggets.

At first glance, Denver and Oklahoma City stand 1½-games apart in wins and losses. However, when taking a closer look under the hood between both parties, Denver’s body of work is far more qualitative as the Nuggets stand 15-12 SU against teams above .500 on the season. Oklahoma City on the contrary, sits at 10-17 SU overall against teams of the same calibre; this is a notable edge to the Nuggets. OKC has won 31 games this season against teams playing below .500. In essence, the Thunder has made a living feasting on cupcakes and have put together a slew of covers while doing so. Now the market has determined OKC deserves to be the chalk and is offering up inflated points in the process. Grab them.

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