Full Card with Selections
Full Card with Selections

BET365      SportInteraction     Pinnacle

Posted at 2:45 PM EST.

This is Saturday’s full UFC Card. We’re going to attempt to use this format over the next few months until football starts back up next September. It’s a complete breakdown of the card with some wagers outlined in bold.

At the end of each writeup, we’ll post whether it’s an official wager or not. 


UFC Vegas 52

UFC Apex - Las Vegas, NV

Streaming: TSN 2 & ESPN+


Dean Barry -1000 over Mike Jackson

8:10 PM EST. There isn’t much to be said about a fight with odds this lopsided so we’ll move on.

Marcin Prachnio Inside the Distance +150 over Philipe Lins

8:35 PM EST. There is much working against Philipe Lins tonight so let’s get right to it. First, he’s been off for almost two years with both injury and fights falling through combining to keep him out of the cage since June of 2020. That feels like a lifetime ago. Also, “Monstro” will be making his first cut from heavyweight (260 lbs) to light-heavyweight (205 lbs). Either of those scenarios on their own would be concerning enough but together, they make Lins worthy of fade consideration.

While Lins was on the sidelines, Marcin Prachnio has been fighting, three times to be exact, racking up a 2-1 record, including two straight wins over Khalil Rountree Jr. and Ike Villanueva. That last bout with Villanueva ended with a Performance of the Night bonus for Panchnio after he crumpled Villanueva with a body kick for the knockout victory. Even if his opponent was in prime form, Prachnio is three years younger and arguably fighting at his highest level. With this fight unlikely to see the judge's scorecards (-225), a warm welcome back to the UFC is not in the cards for “Monstro.” Play: Marcin Prachnio Inside the Distance +150 (Risking 2 units).


Preston Parsons Inside the Distance +175 over Evan Elder

7:00 PM EST. Preston Parsons was in a similar situation to Evan Elder in his UFC debut, where he stepped in on short notice to fight Daniel Rodriguez last October. The result is not one that “Pressure” wanted, as he was finished in the first round. Now, with that fight under the bright lights under his belt, the roles here for “Pressure” have been reversed, as he now welcomes a UFC newcomer.

In the wake of the removal of Louis Cosce from this card, Evan Elder steps in to make his UFC debut. On paper, he looks pretty good. Elder is undefeated at 7-0 and he sports four first round stoppages on his resume. However, stepping in and fighting above one’s normal weight class in the world’s biggest MMA promotion on just a few days' notice is not an enviable position. It might be one that gets Elder another call or even maybe a contract, but in this moment, asking him to perform at his best might be too much. Again, this one is not expected to go the distance (-225) and so the prudent play would be to back the short priced favorite to get the finish and his first UFC win. Recommendation: Preston Parson Inside the Distance +175 (No bets).


Quileng Aori Inside the Distance +100 over Cameron Else

7:25 PM EST. Somebody, somewhere wanted a night of violence, as this is the fourth fight in a row that is not expected to go the distance (-225). We’re not complaining, we hate to be holding a ticket when the scores are read even if our fighter totally kicked ass. You just never know, ya know?

Enter Quileng Aori who gets a very favorable draw here in Cameron Else, who hasn’t fought in 18 months. “The Mongolian Murderer,” is 0-1 in the UFC, but he performed admirably in his loss to Jeff Molina, as Aori picked up a Fight of the Night bonus for his debut effort. Not bad, kid.

This matchup is tailor made for Aori to get off the schneid, as Else makes just his second walk to the UFC’s Octagon after losing his debut to Kyler Phillips. While there is no shame in losing, that fight was way back in October 2020. The reason for “The Prospect Killer’s” time off is a combination of him leaving his former training grounds at Donald Cerrone’s ranch, Visa issues (he’s British) and nursing a hand injury. At 34 we have to wonder if Else’s best days are behind him. Even if better days lay ahead, this is a very tough “welcome back” fight. Play: Quileng Aori Inside the Distance +100 (Risking 2 units).


Tyson Pedro -669 over Ike Villanueva

7:50 PM EST. If you were questioning Ike Villanueva’s current role as UFC punching bag, fear not! He’ll be punched plenty here. Dude’s been knocked out in four of his last five UFC fights. Get ready to make it five-of-six.


Dwight Grant +103 over Sergey Khandozhko

8:10 PM EST. Sergey Khandozhko has not fought since November of 2019. Do you know how long ago that was? Like, that’s pre-pandemic, y’all. That bout, which resulted in a loss to Rustam Khabilov was so long ago that you can almost strike it and his UFC debut (a win back in June of 2019) from the record. Injuries and COVID have sidelined “Honda,” which makes spotting a price with him here too risky.

If Dwight Grant has one thing working against him here tonight, it’s his battle with Father Time. "The Body Snatcher" is 37 and coming off a run of fights that make it hard to get excited about him. A split decision to Francisco Trinaldo last October inspires little confidence. In fact, Grant is one of the toughest fighters to bet on because of his style. This propensity for split decisions is one that cannot be ignored. Seriously, dude has racked up four spit decisions in his last six fights. That’s pretty incredible, and not in a good way. He’s split those split decisions 2-2. His last “great” performance, a knockout of Daniel Rodriguez came back in August of 2020.

It’s too bad there is not a more dynamic or even a younger fighter standing across from Khandozhko after his long layoff, but one can only play the cards they are dealt. This would be a dog or pass situation. Recommendation: Dwight Grant (No bets).


Jordan Wright +167 over Marc-Andre Barriault

8:40 PM EST. Jordan Wright’s modest UFC run (2-2) is uninspiring, but this pick has little to do with “The Beverly Hills Ninja.” At least not anymore, as his original opponent was forced to withdraw. We did write up Wright over Roman Kopylov at +170 in case you were wondering, but we’ll save that fodder for another day, as our attention now moves to his new opponent.

On a fight card that has seen many changes, here is another, as UFC veteran Marc-Andre Barriault steps in for Kopylov with less than two weeks to prepare.

It’s not often a replacement fighter is favored in such a range with such little time to prepare for their fight, but that is not our only concern with M.A.B as the chalk. In case you missed it, and if you blinked, you probably did, “Power Bar” suffered his first knockout loss back in February.

Chidi Njokuani made quick work of Barriault that night, dropping him in just 16 seconds. We appreciate that “Power Bar” wants to get right back on his horse, but we cannot predict how, at 32, he will react to that first KO. There’s a chance his pride may get the best of him here. Play: Jordan Wright +167 (Risking 2 units).


Charles Jourdain Inside the Distance +300 over Lando Vannata

9:00 PM EST. Perhaps our minds are poisoned, but we cannot get the image of Lando Vannata looking like goddamned Skellator at the weigh-ins Friday afternoon. We know that weight cutting can be brutal, but it’s still that dirty little secret that the UFC refuses to do anything about. Believe it or not, there are other fight organizations that put their fighters' health and safety first by not allowing extreme weight cuts. In the fighter friendly (LOLZ) UFC, that stance is nowhere in sight.

We could break this fight down further, but we’re not going to.mWe’re going to trust what our eyes told us at the weigh-ins, Vannata looked like death warmed over. If his cheekbones were any more defined, he’d be on a runway in Paris strutting his stuff for GQ. If “Groovy” is served well by torturing himself to make the 145 lbs weight limit so be it, but we’re not buying into that perceived “advantage.” Vannata is just 2-2 in his last four UFC fights, including a split decision his last time out. That was his first bout at 145 lbs. When a fighter in his 30s is struggling to find a home, we take notice. “Groovy” has always been one of those fighters the fans love, but has never lived up to his “potential.” If he was worth a spit at 155 lbs, Vannata would not have dropped classes. He’s also been off for nearly a calendar year. Another red flag.

Charles Jourdain is four years younger (26) than “Groovy,” but he’s been fighting in the UFC longer than you might think. ‘Air’s” debut came back in May of 2019, when he was just 23. That fight resulted in a loss, but since then, Jourdain has made six more trips to the Octagon, winning three. Jourdain has yet to break out in the UFC, but he knows this is his chance to make his name, “It’s a good name, good scrap. It’s good for him, it’s good for me. I want to be remembered as this young Canadian warrior who never said no. I wanted to be remembered as this so this is a very good fight to prove that.” We agree. This one has the potential to end in a violent fashion. At these odds, it might be worth finding out. Play: Charles Jourdain Inside the Distance +300 (Risking 2 units).


Alexander Romanov -2250 over Chase Sherman 9:45 PM EST. Here lies Chase Sherman…


Maycee Barber Inside the Distance +333 over Montana De La Rosa

10:00 PM EST. General consensus in the market is that this fight is closer to a coin flip than the oddsmakers would have us believe, but we just don’t see it. Rather, we see an underpriced Maycee Barber, who just might have what it takes to finish this fight inside the distance. When we back a fighter, we generally do not expect a decision and that is especially true when we back a favorite. It’s not in our toolbox to spot a price like this in any sporting event, however, at better than 3-1 to knock her opponent's block off or submit her is far more enticing.

Montana De La Rosa has some buzz here after dropping Ariane Lipski last time out, but we’re going to use that newfound love from the market against her here. De La Rosa is a ground specialist that lives and dies by the takedown, a perceived weakness of Barber, but her one-dimensional style may be her downfall tonight.

We suspect Barber has worked on her takedown defense and planned accordingly. Catching De La Rosa with a good shot on the way in or even yoking her up for submission should be the game plan.The value for Maycee to finish this fight is too tremendous. Recommendation: Maycee Barber Inside the Distance (No Bets).


Claudio Puelles Inside the Distance +260 over Clay Guida

10:30 PM EST. We love Clay Guida, everyone loves Clay Guida. He bobs and jabs, never stops moving and he’s still here in the UFC at 40. Not freakin’ bad for a 155 lbs cage fighter. Guida did win in his last fight, submitting Leonard Santos with a rear-naked choke. However, time is a cruel mistress and while Guida is still pulling a check from Uncle Dana, his results have not been that stellar the last few years, losing three of his last five bouts. His other two wins were not impressive, as they came over fellow aged fighters in Michael Johnson and whatever was left of B.J. Penn.

Claudio Puelles is supposed to win this fight. He’s 14 years Guida’s junior and has all the skills necessary to make a mark in the 155 lbs division. He’s won four straight UFC fights after dropping his debut, including a slick kneebar to submit Chris Gruetzemacher last December.

“El Nino” actually opened as a significant favorite here (-175), but Guida is a market darling and huge fan favorite. Now the odds are where you see them, a coin flip. No offense to Mr. Guida, but that’s just not right. Let us not forget that Guida was a HUGE underdog against Johnson (+285 at open) and he was +220 against Santos and now he's in the pick ‘em range, thus, pointing us in the right direction of the true value. Play: Claudio Puelles Inside the Distance +260 (2 units).


Jessica Andrade Inside the Distance +130 over Amanda Lemos

11:00 PM EST. We’re going to be as nice as possible here, but at 34, we cannot get behind Amanda Lemos as “the next big thing” in women’s MMA and specifically the 115 lbs division. Sure, she’s on a five fight win streak that saw her win a close split decision over Angela Hill last December, but we just can’t see a path to victory here. The power punches she used to finish both Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza in her other two bouts in 2021 may be rendered useless against a chick as tough as Jessica Andrade. Worth noting that Lemos was a big favorite over Hill (-260) and Ruiz (-500). In MMA, not all victories are created equal.

Jessica Andrade is a bad, bad woman and we would not like to meet up with her in a dark alley somewhere. She looks like she’d rip your arm off and strangle you with it if given the chance. “Bate Estaca” has been a staple for the women in the UFC. She’s been to the top and fought for the title and while she was not successful, few have been against “Thug” Rose. Andrade holds division records for most knockouts (3), strikes landed per minute (6.88) and post fight bonuses (7). When one fights “Bate Estaca,” one gets hit and gets hit hard.

From our perch, in a five round fight, this is Andrade’s bout to lose. We expect Lemos to try and end it early, but when that fails, then what? As this fight moves into the later rounds and Andrade drags Lemos to the deep waters, it’s going to get ugly for the aged “Amandinha.” By round four or five (if it goes that long), Andrade is going to be able to pick and choose how this fight ends. We’re willing to bet, “Bate Estaca” gets her division leading fourth KO/TKO and eight post fight bonus for Performance of the Night. Play: Jessica Andrade Inside the Distance +130


Total Units Wagered = 12. We will update these results after the event. Enjoy the fights!

Wagers won

Quileng Aori Inside the Distance +100 over Cameron Else = +2 units

Charles Jourdain Inside the Distance +300 over Lando Vannata = +6 units

Claudio Puelles Inside the Distance +260 over Clay Guida = +5.2 units

Jessica Andrade Inside the Distance +130 over Amanda Lemos +2.6 units

Wagers Lost

Marcin Prachnio Inside the Distance +150 over Philipe Lins =-2 units

Jordan Wright +167 over Marc-Andre Barriault = - 2 units

Therefore 15.8 units in wins - 4 units in losses = a net pofit of 11.8 units for this event


Our Pick

Full Card with Selections (Risking 12 units - To Win: 0.00)