Today's Free Picks for
UFC Fight Island 6 - Yas Island - Abu Dhabi, UAE
Thomas Almeida (Inside the Distance) +162 over Jonathan Martinez
Posted at 3:00 PM EST.
7:15 PM EST. Fight fans can be fickle. Just ask Thomas Almeida. Dude was 20-0 before running into Cody Garbrandt back in May of 2016 and he's won only one fight since. That victory came nearly four years ago against Albert Morales. Almeida actually hasn't stepped foot in a UFC cage since January of 2018 when he was knocked out by Rob Font. Almeida has been off the radar for so long, that anyone who has been watching the fights in the pandemic era will likely have no idea who he is or how he could be favored after such a long layoff.
Anyone looking to bet a dog tonight is likely to be drawn to Jonathan Martinez. "The Dragon" has won three of his last four fights, including a TKO over Frankie Saenz in his last appearance in August. That was a catchweight bout because Marinez missed weight and as is often the case, he was rewarded with a win despite not doing what was expected of him. How did this guy ever fight at 125 lbs? Martinez is getting pounded by the market after opening as a +165 pooch. That price is much lower on fight night. There is a damn good reason that Almeida was near 2-1 chalk and with oddsmakers not expecting this fight to go the distance (-175), we see more value backing him here to finish the job before the final horn sounds.
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Thomas Almeida (Inside the Distance) +162 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.24)