Today's Free Picks for
UFC Fight Island 5 - Yas Island - Abu Dhabi, UAE
Marlon Moraes +125 over Cory Sandhagen
Posted at 12:30 PM EST.
10:45 PM EST. Marlon Moraes is the #1 ranked bantamweight in the UFC, yet he is the pooch tonight. Why? First, it could be because in his last fight he won a questionable split decision to Jose Aldo. That bout took place back in December at UFC 245. Before that, Moraes contended for the then vacant bantamweight championship but got absolutely demolished by Henry Cejudo. Recent results carry weight in the market, so one could argue that the clock is ticking on Moraes' status as the top-ranked contender at 135 lbs, but it would be foolish to write him off now while his stock appears low.
Moraes is still the fighter who went on an incredible run of finishes over Aljamain Sterling, Jimmie Rivera and Raphael Assuncao. Let us also not forget that Moreas opened as a significant favorite over Aldo (-176) and Cejudo (-175). Now he's a dog to Cory Sandhagen? That's not right.
Sandhagen's UFC debut came just over two years ago and in that time, he's racked up a 4-1 record in the Octagon. Wins over Raphael Assuncao and John Lineker put him on the fast track in the bantamweight division, but he hit a major roadblock named Aljamain Sterling in his last fight. That is the same Sterling that Moraes knocked out by the way. While MMA math is never perfect, Moraes was priced at -175 over Sterling while Sandhagen was +115, which suggests to us that the price on this fight is out of whack. The wrong man is favored here.
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Marlon Moraes +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)