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Posted at 12:45 PM EST

UFC Fight Island 4 - Yas Island - Abu Dhabi, UAE

Julianna Pena +129 over Germaine De Randamie

9:45 PM EST. Germaine De Randamie's UFC career is a weird one. She was the promotions first 145 lb champion, which she won controversially over Holly Holm. She then refused to defend that title against Cris Cyborg and was stripped of the gold. You'd think that her relationship with the UFC would be forever damaged after such a move, but it was not and she returned to the cage a year and a half later in a decision win over Raquel Pennington. A victory over Aspen Ladd followed eight months later, which led to her 135 lb title shot against Amanda Nunes last December, which she lost. We highlight those gaps in competition because De Randamie has fought just six times over the last seven years when you add it all up. This is a classic "grappler" versus "striker" matchup and while De Randamie has had some success with that clash of styles in the past with wins over Pennington and Ladd stuffing all eight of the formers takedown attempts while knocking out the latter before she could take her shot. However, against an elite grappler like Nunes, De Randamie was rag-dolled and went down to the mat eight times on 11 attempts.

Julianna Pena hasn't seen the inside of the Octagon since her win over Nicco Montano, which took place on the same card last July as De Randamie's knockout over Ladd, which headlined that card. That victory padded Pena's UFC record at 5-1, with her only defeat coming to the lethal Valentina Shevchenko. Even though she lost that fight, Pena was able to do something that many others have not and took Shevchenko down, just as she has with all of her UFC opponents. In a three-round fight, those takedowns are often overvalued by the judges and they add up. Even if Pena is not the dominant fighter here, she is very capable of stealing a decision. However, we expect her to be the one to dictate the pace of this fight and notch another tally in the win column.

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