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Posted at 2:30 PM EST

UFC Jacksonville - VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

Hunter Azure by Decision +120 over Brian Kelleher 2 Units

UFC Jacksonville - VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

7:35 PM EST. Hunter Azure is undefeated in MMA, but he has yet to live up to his hype in the UFC after a pair of unanimous decision wins over Chris Ocon and Brad Katona. Azure was a massive 6-1 favorite over Ocon on Dana White's Contender Series and despite not getting the finish, he still received a UFC contract. 

Brian Kelleher relished the role of spoiler in his last fight when he stopped prospect Ode Osbourne by submission at UFC 246 in January. That most recent result on a high profile card like McGregor vs. Cowboy has Kelleher overvalued in this spot. While it looks like a similar situation on paper with Kelleher holding the gate for another up-and-comer, that couldn't be further from the truth.

There are undervalued favorites in all sports and MMA is no different. However, while most team spots have a point spread to the handicap the difference in talent, fighting does not. Hunter is close to a 2-1 favorite here. The betting price for him to win inside the distance is +380 or thereabouts, which is a strong indication that’s not going to happen. Often underdogs are that price or even less to win inside the distance. The prices on the variations to win dictate the play. Hunter, if he does win will do so by decision and that’s how we’re going to play it.  

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