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Posted at 2:30 PM EST

UFC Jacksonville - VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

Thiago Moises -110 over Michael Johnson

8:05 PM EST. Michael Johnson has been fighting in the UFC for nearly a decade after making his debut on The Ultimate Fighter in 2010, where he lost in the final to Jonathan Brookins. Brookins has long since flamed out of the world's number one MMA promotion, but Johnson is still here after racking up an 11-11 record. The last five years or so have not been kind to Johnson, as he arguably reached his peak early in 2015 with a win over Edson Barboza, which was his fourth straight victory at the time. In his next fight, Johnson dropped a split decision to Beneil Dariush that sent him tumbling down the ladder, as the likes of Nate Diaz, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje all stepped over him with victories in the 155 LB division. After a TKO loss to Gatheje, Johnson dropped to Featherweight to revitalize his career after it was clear he could not hang with the killers at the top of the Lightweight division. However, the grass was not greener, as Johnson went just 2-2 and again played the role of gatekeeper to the likes of Josh Emmit, who knocked him out in his last appearance at 145 LBS. Johnson returned to Lightweight in his last fight, but again lost in a close majority decision to Stevie Ray back at UFC on ESPN+ in October. Johnson is the definition of a stepping stone and as long as the UFC keeps him around, he's going to be fade material.

Compared to his opponent tonight, Thiago Moises is an unknown. He is unranked and just 1-2 inside the Octagon, but that small sample size suits us just fine here, as we get to back a fighter on the way up at a much smaller price than we should be. Before entering the UFC, Moises racked up an 11-2 record with five of those victories coming by submission. Despite the price currently being offered, this fight is no coin flip. There is a reason that oddsmakers opened with Moises spotting a much larger price than he is now and we trust they got it right. This might be the bargain of the night.

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