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Posted at 11:00 AM EST

UFC 249 - VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

Donald Cerrone +125 over Anthony Pettis

9:40 PM EST. The last time we all saw Donald Cerrone, he was getting smashed by Conor McGregor's shoulder in the highest-profile UFC fight of the ESPN era. It was not only the biggest PPV buy since The World Wide Leader took over, but the big shots in Bristol have also aired that fight card on ESPN Proper in the absence of live sports. The point is, just about everybody has now seen "Cowboy" get his assed kicked in 40 seconds.

With there being little action in the Octagon since that January 18th UFC 246 contest, the quick and violent result is still very much fresh in the minds of the market. "Cowboy" was a popular pick that night and we bit too, ripping up our tickets with countless others. Recent results are often overvalued and if you've been following the lead up to UFC 249, the tone about "Cowboy" has very much changed. Against McGregor, he was given a grappler's chance, but now, Cerrone is apparently washed up and should be put out to pasture. As for his competition tonight, "Cowboy" has already fallen to Anthony Pettis in a fight that took place in another world at UFC on Fox in January of 2013. Still, the fact Cerrone is priced in a similar range now as he was then has us taking a closer look at his opposition.

"Showtime" was set to be the face of the UFC at one point, as he became the first MMA fighter to become a Wheaties cover man after winning the Lightweight Championship in the summer of 2013, but that plan was derailed by a train name Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 185 in Pettis' second defence of his title. "Showtime" was near -500 when he took the long walk to the cage that night and he got beat brutally for 25 minutes. He's never been the same. In the five years since, Pettis is just 4-7 in the Octagon and while he has lost to some of the best in the business in Nate Diaz, Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway, he was finished by all but Diaz.

Many of those 11 fights took place across multiple weight classes, as Pettis chased opportunity at Featherweight and Welterweight (a 35 LB difference by the way) in an attempt to find himself, but it did not go as planned. "Showtime" returned to Lightweight, his most successful class, in his last fight against Carlos Diego Ferreira at UFC 246, but it too did not go as planned, as Pettis was submitted in the second round.

On the surface, Pettis has the pedigree of a former champion in multiple organizations and he was once considered the best in his division. Cerrone, on the other hand, is a loveable never was that takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin', but he blew his chance to cash the biggest-ticket of his life against McGregor. Under the hood is where it gets interesting. How "Cowboy" will respond to that disappointment can't be predicted, but he's been in this spot before and it's his failures at the very top of the mountain and his ability to bounce back with one foot in the grave that made him a fan favorite in the first place. We know what we are going to get with Pettis, dude's head has been spinning for a half-decade. Meanwhile, Donald Cerrone almost died diving in a cave. Do you think he gives a fuck about a broken face? Ride, "Cowboy," ride, all the way to the cashier’s window.

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