Al Iaquinta vs Dan Hooker
Al Iaquinta +140 over Dan Hooker

Pinnacle +132 Bet365 +140 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +135 888Sport +140

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

UFC 243 - Marvel Stadium - Melbourne, Australia

Al Iaquinta +140 over Dan Hooker

11:45 PM EST. We won't deny that Dan Hooker has been on a hell of a run of late in the UFC. He's 5-1 in his last six fights with five finishes (4 KOs, 1 SUB) with his only loss coming to Edson Barboza. This is a big night for the New Zealand native and while you may read that this Australian card will favor the locals, it can often work against them. Media and family obligations are intensified tenfold. If this fight were to take place in Vegas, nobody is looking for Dan Hooker (no offense to "The Hangman"). Meanwhile, he could have every aunt, second cousin and buddy from high school looking for tickets to this fight. In his last bout, Hooker disposed of James Vick and finally cracked the Top-15 (#15) in the lightweight division. In college sports, we often look to fade teams that make their way into the rankings because they are often overvalued the next time out. Hooker takes a big step up in competition here, but the oddsmakers have not priced it as such.

In the Octagon, just like many other fields of "play," recent results often dictate market perception. It was not that long ago that Al Iaquinta went toe-to-toe with the current lightweight kingpin, Khabib Nurmagomendov on short notice in Brooklyn at UFC 223 in April of 2018. His follow up to that career-defining fight was a Performance of the Night win over Kevin Lee in a feature spot on the UFC on Fox last December. Iaquinta was a 4-1 pooch against Khabib and was live as hell. He was 3-1 against Lee and kicked ass. However, in his UFC Fight Night bout with Donald Cerrone, Iaquinta was the chalk. We talk about bad favorites all the time in other sports and MMA is no different. Al Iaquinta lost that fight to Cerrone, although it was also a Fight of the Night award winner. That most recent result now has Iaquinta as the pooch in a fight he’s way undervalued in.

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Our Pick

Al Iaquinta +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)