Y.Rodriguez vs J.Stephens
Y.Rodriguez -110 over J.Stephens

Pinnacle -113 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -110 888Sport -114

Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

Yair Rodriguez -110 over Jeremy Stephens

UFC Fight Night 159 - Mexico City Arena - Mexico City, Mexico

10:15 PM EST. Jeremy Stephens is popular with fight fans because of his ability to end a fight with his punching power and relentless ground and pound, but to think of "Lil Heathen" as anything more than a gatekeeper at this point might be too much to ask. Stephens has been around a long time and it's his fight style that keeps him employed by the UFC. He's a great company man. He's got just enough name value that he can headline these Fight Night shows, as he is here and did against Jose Aldo in July of 2018. That fight was the culmination of Stephens latest resurgence that started with a win over Gilbert Melendez at UFC 215 that he then parlayed into a three win streak that also including finishes of Doo Ho Choi and Jose Emmett. That loss to an elite talent like Aldo can be forgiven, but for Stephens getting to that line is as far as he ever seems to go. His list of defeats are a who's who of the sport, Pettis, Cerrone, Holloway, Edgar and of course Aldo, all of which are sure-fire Hall of Famers, but Stephens has lots of losses to lesser known competition as well such as his loss to Zabit Magomedsharipov in his last fight at UFC 235 in March. That's two straight losses and with a ton of tread on his 33-year-old tires, Stephens isn't being set up for success here and for him to be priced in the same range as a younger and much more gifted fighter just isn't right. 

Yair Rodriguez snatched victory from the jaws of a sure defeat when he knocked out Chan Sung Jung with one second to go in the fifth round of their fight in November of 2018. Rodriguez was down on the scorecards and so he had to finish The Korean Zombie. That performance and a long layoff may be the reason the market is overlooking El Pantera, but there is no doubt that he is the superior fighter here. Rodriguez has had flashes of brilliance, but has also looked silly at times when trying to deploy is unique offensive set, which is another reason why so many pundits are picking against him here, however, it's important to remember that he's just 26 and there are always going to be bumps in the road. At one time, El Pantera was a UFC prodigy, but he's had a rocky relationship with the promotion over the years including his brief release in 2018 for turning down two fights. Now, it appears he and the UFC are on the same page as they both try to make inroad in his native Mexico which is where this fight takes place tonight. Mexico City is an extreme altitude, which could also be a factor in this fight. It's just one more reason to like Yair Rodriguez at this discounted price.

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Our Pick

Y.Rodriguez -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)