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Posted at 11:15 AM EST

UFC Fight Night 147 - O2 Arena - London, England

 

We are featuring three plays for this afternoon's UFC card from London. All plays will be for 1 unit each. 

 

Darren Till by Decision +160 over Jorge Masvidal - Bet 365

 

6:45 PM EST. Jorge Masvidal showed up in London after a year off from the Octagon looking more like a GQ cover man than a cage fighter. That "Gamebred" appeared to spend more time on his luscious locks than his fight game while out of action may serve us well here. When at his best, Masvidal is no doubt a bad, bad man, but at 34, he has a ton of tread on his tires. Not only does Masvidal have 45 mixed martial arts fight under his belt, but he got his start as a backyard street fighter in Miami when he was very young. The knock on "Gamebred" is that he doesn't really fight with a lot of urgency, which has led to a number of decisions over his career. Masvidal lost his last two fights, both in 2017 by decision to Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia respectively and he had similar results against Lorenz Larkin, Benson Henderson and Al Iaquinta. When he's at his most violent, as he was in TKOs of "Cowboy" Cerrone and Jake Ellenberger, Masvidal is nearly unbeatable, but rarely do we get to see that side of him. Perhaps the time away from the cage gave him enough time to heal his wounds and Masvidal will be eager to put Darren Till away, but cage rust is real and we're willing to bet "Gamebred" settles into his old ways.

 

Darren Till has the weight of a nation on his shoulders, as the UFC's main UK star after the retirement of Michael Bisping, but the Brit has had trouble living up to the lofty standards that come with such a role. Till lost his last fight to then-champion Tyron Woodley after getting choked out and he won an uninspiring decision over Stephen Thompson the fight prior. With this fight taking place in England, the judging is very much likely to favor "The Gorilla." His countrymen are going to go nuts every time Till lands a punch, which he will if Jorge Masvidal is not aggressive and lets him box from the outside. Those roars can be very influential. Till will have no interest in grappling with "Gamebred," but he’ll have a lot of interest in “volume” which weighs heavily on the judges, thus a decision in Till's favor is his most likely path to victory.That’s how we’re playing it.

 

 

Gunnar Nelson +126 over Leon Edwards - Pinnacle

 

6:15 PM EST. Leon Edwards is on a six-fight win streak, but the level of some of that competition is suspect at best, as the UFC has since cut two of those fighters. Edwards will get points for beating up on Donald Cerrone, but that fight was a 170 lbs and "Cowboy" has since made his way back down to 155 lbs. Edwards is on the fast track and is already ranked in the top 10, but he hasn't faced anyone quite like Gunnar Nelson.

 

To be fair, nobody is like "Gunni" and his mix of high level striking and fight finishing submissions are nearly impossible to contend with. Nelson left Alex Oliveira in a bloody pile after choking him out in his last fight and a similar fate for Edwards is on the table here. Nelson is a high volume striker and he will use that to get into the clinch and take Edwards down where he will be in big trouble. "Gunni" is the more well-rounded fighter and we're getting him at a price. That's a no brainer.

 

 

Volkan Oezdemir by KO +400 over Dominick Reyes - Bet365

 

5:45 PM EST. Dominick Reyes is on the fast track in the UFC's 205 lbs division and has started his MMA career at 10-0. However, the level of competition he has faced thus far is not that inspiring. Reyes is a great athlete to be sure and he was All-Conference twice while playing defensive back at Stony Brook, but when he lined up for the Seawolves, there was nobody like Volkan Oezdemir looking back at him.

 

Volkan Oezdemir is clearly in the role of the gatekeeper after losing his last two fights, but when you consider Anthony Smith went the distance with Jon Jones, that last defeat doesn't look nearly as bad as it did at the time. "No Time's" other loss was to then-champion and current heavyweight kingpin Daniel Cormier. Before that, Oezdemir went on a four-fight win streak that featured a pair of knockouts over Jimi Manuwa and Misha Cirkunov respectively. "No Time" is always a threat to land that crushing blow and that result is worth a play at an inflated price like this.

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