UFC 266
Uros Medic (Inside the Distance) +150 over Jalin Turner

Pinnacle  +140 BET365 +150SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin+145 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

UFC 266 - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, NV

 

Uros Medic (Inside the Distance) +150 over Jalin Turner

 

7:45 PM EST. We are straight up going against the efficient market, the talking heads and just about any publication you want to read that is previewing this fight. We didn’t realize that when we choked on our Raisin Bran upon seeing Uros Medic spotting such a short price. However, being unknowing contrarian is not so bad, in fact, it’s like the cherry on a value sundae.

 

So why all the attention from the market and the pundits on Jalin Turner? It could be the two-fight win streak he is on, but from our perch, that’s a pretty modest accomplishment considering his competition. Turner did finish both Brok Weaver (submission) and Joshua Culibao (TKO) and that will certainly get one noticed, as will his 4½-inch reach advantage. We rarely discuss size in these fights, because it is not as important as the market believes. This is not boxing, where there is only a single attack. One can try to keep their opposition at bay inside the Octagon by punching from distance, but if it were that easy, the taller dudes would win way more often than they do. “The Tarantula” doesn’t really do anything really well in the cage and until we see him face some real competition, we’re going to have a hard time getting excited. Seriously, what does Jalin Turner have working for him tonight other than his height and reach? Take your time, we’ll wait.

 

How Uros Medic is flying under the radar here is beyond us. Maybe we watch too many dudes get punched in the face for pleasure, but Medic was one of our favorites while he was in Alaska FC. Here’s a plug for UFC Fight Pass, you’re welcome, Uncle Dana. His moniker, “The Doctor,” is an appropriate nickname that is not based on looks, but rather results. Medic, a native of Serbia, ripped through the AFC leaving the promotion with a 5-0 record, all finishes (three KOs, two subs). When he was given his shot to punch his ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series, Medic beat the shit out of Mikey Gonzalez, putting him down in just 2:12. In his first official Octagon appearance, “The Doctor” dismantled Aalon Cruz, submitting him in 1:10. Yet, nobody is pumping Medic’s tire. Well, that stops now. We are officially starting up the bandwagon and all are welcome.

 

We’ll close with this. “The Doctor” has seen the second round just once in his professional fighting career. That now spans a highly competitive regional promotion, a life changing tryout for a UFC contract, and his first fight under the bright lights of the world’s best MMA promotion. Medic rightfully opened as a near 2-1 favorite, but now he is nowhere near that. One could eat the juice if they were so inclined, but that’s not how we roll. Turner is so outclassed in every aspect of this game that it’s not even funny. The oddsmakers do not believe this fight will go the distance (-240) and of course, neither do we, or else we would not waste our time nor yours. The finish here is the most likely outcome and Uros Medic is the one that will put his man down. Will it be a TKO or submission? Ah, we’ll leave that up to “The Doctor” to decide.

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Our Pick

Uros Medic (Inside the Distance) +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

UFC 266
Shamil Abdurakhimov +176 over Chris Draukus

Pinnacle  +176 BET365 +170SportsInteraction +170 BetOnlin +175 Bookmaker  +170

Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

UFC 266 - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, NV

 

Shamil Abdurakhimov +176 over Chris Draukus

 

8:45 PM EST. Chris Drakus’s stock is high after a four fight win streak that saw him knockout Danny Holmes, Parker Porter, Rodrigo Nascimento, and Aleksei Oleinik in that order, with his most recent triumph coming back in February. Furthering his curb appeal are two Performance of the Night Bonuses in his last two outings. Despite that run of success, we cannot get excited about spotting an inflated price with a stiff like this and neither should you. Now would be the prudent time to sell.

 

Heavyweight fights are always a bit of a crapshoot, but that is why a hard hitting underdog like the returning Shamil Abdurakhimov is such an appealing proposition for value bettors. Abdurakhimov has been off the radar for a couple of years and that makes him a bit of an unknown in the market. However, dude was on a tear before his hiatus and it’s not like he’s not chomping at the bit. Abdurakhimov has had six fights scheduled and six fights canceled, including dates with Ciryl Gane and Augusto Sakai. On the surface, at 40, Shamil might look like a gatekeeper or speed bump on his opponent way up the 265 lbs ranks, but that would be short sighted. Abdurakhimov has lost just two of his last seven fights and those were to Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes, both currently ranked in the top four. Shamil is taking a big step down in competition here, while Drakus is taking one up. The wrong fighter might not be favored here, but the odds of Abdurakhimov winning are much better than what’s being offered. Overlay.

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A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

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Our Pick

Shamil Abdurakhimov +176 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.52)

UFC 266
Marlon Moraes +211 over Merab Dvalishvili

Pinnacle  +211 BET365 +200SportsInteraction +200 BetOnlin +210 Bookmaker  +200

Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

UFC 266 - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, NV

 

Marlon Moraes +211 over Merab Dvalishvili

 

9:45 PM EST. The market appears to be ready to write off Marlon Moraes after a 1-3 run, but considering the high level of competition that he’s faced at 135 LBS, we’re willing to be much more forgiving. In those last four tilts, dude lost to Henry Cejudo in a Bantamweight Championship fight, beat Jose Aldo, and then lost back-to-back contests to Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font. While "Champ, Champ" Cejudo is “retired,” the others are ranked #5, #3, and #4, respectively. Moraes is still an elite bantamweight fighter, even if he’s not priced like it here.

 

Merab Dvalishvili is on the upswing, or at least his market appeal is, as he’s taken the lion’s share of the action here. Believe it or not, this fight opened as a pick ‘em at some joints, and now, oy vey. Recent results appear to be a huge influence here, as a six fight win streak for Dvalishvili combined with Moreas’ run of losses has the former’s price shooting to the moon.

 

If it turns out Moreas is washed up for good, and Dvalishvili is the next big thing at bantamweight, so be it. However, as purveyors of value, we cannot leave a fighter as good as Moraes, as ridiculously priced as he is off our slate.

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TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games, and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels, all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.

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Our Pick

Marlon Moraes +211 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.22)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days030.00-6.00
Season to Date21370.00-14.50