Sportsinteraction

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Toronto -1½ +130 over Pittsburgh

12:15 PM EST. The Blue Jays are playing too well to ignore right now and this matchup strongly favors them once again. Toronto has already taken the first two games of this series and extended its winning streak despite facing Pittsburgh ace Paul Skenes yesterday. That alone tells you plenty about the current form of this club. The Jays are putting pressure on opposing pitching staffs from the first inning through the ninth and continue to make life miserable for pitchers who rely on contact.

Dylan Cease (RHP - TOR) has been one of the most dominant starters in baseball this season. Through 57 innings, Cease has piled up 84 strikeouts while posting a 2.98 ERA backed by an even stronger 2.69 expected ERA. His 17% swinging-strike rate ranks among the elite starters in the game and his ground-ball rate continues to climb, reaching 55% in his most recent outing. When a pitcher is missing bats at an elite level while simultaneously generating more ground balls, that's a dangerous combination for any opponent.

The Pirates haven't looked comfortable in this ballpark all series long and now face a pitcher capable of completely shutting down an offense that already struggles to generate consistent hard contact. Pittsburgh simply doesn't possess the type of lineup that typically succeeds against power arms with swing-and-miss stuff. The Pirates rank 28th out of 30 teams in team strikeouts.

Mitch Keller (RHP - PIT) remains the definition of consistency, but not necessarily the type bettors should be eager to invest in. Keller's strikeout rate continues to trend in the wrong direction and his six strikeouts per nine innings ranks among the lowest of any qualified starter. In fact, among today's starting pitchers, only one carries a lower strikeout rate. That's a dangerous profile against a Toronto lineup that strikes out less than any team in Major League Baseball.

The Blue Jays force pitchers to work. They put balls in play. They extend at-bats and rarely give away outs. That's exactly the type of lineup that can expose a contact-oriented starter who lacks swing-and-miss weapons. Keller's margin for error is already thin, and against an offense that consistently puts pressure on opposing defenses, that margin shrinks even further.

Toronto enters with the hotter bats, the superior starter and all the momentum. The Jays continue finding ways to score, Cease is capable of dominating any lineup in baseball and Pittsburgh's offense has shown little indication that it can keep pace. With the Pirates struggling to generate offense and Keller facing one of the toughest lineups in baseball to strike out, Toronto is in position not just to win, but to win comfortably.

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