Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +127 BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +126 888Sport +125

Miami +127 over Arizona

3:40 PM EST. Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI) is off to a terrific start this year and is coming off back-to-back gems against Colorado and Washington. In his last start v Washington, Kelly struck out 10 batters. Still, we have to wonder if his sudden dominance is sustainable. His BABIP of .269 and his strand rate of 80% says no. If you bet on Kelly today, of course you may win but his stock is very high and you could be too late to this party. Besides that, this is more of a value play on Miami and its underpriced starter.

Edward Cabrera (RHP - MIA) went 6-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 73 innings for Miami last year, IL stints in April (biceps) and June (elbow) cost him two months, but posted quality numbers after his June call-up. More change-ups led to an excellent swing and miss rate and he’s carried that momentum into this year but on paper, it doesn’t look that way with his 4.78 ERA after seven starts. Buy now. You see, Cabrera is firing on all cylinders. He has 44 K’s in 32 frames and 38 K’s in his last 25 innings. He brings with him an xERA of 3.55 over his last three starts. He also has an elite 53% groundball rate. Still a growth stock given age and pedigree but this is coming together quickly so the time to buy is now.

Sherwood

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