Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -1½ +134 BET365 -1½ +140 Sportsinteraction -1½ +134 888Sport -1½ +140

Oakland -1½ +140 over Kansas City

2:10 PM EST. Oakland has eight wins in 34 games. They have a run differential of -120. That’s a difference of 234 runs between the A’s run differential and Tampa’s run differential of +114 after a month of baseball. It’s insane how bad the A’s have been and now they’re road chalk with a rookie pitcher going up against a guy who made a bit of a name of himself while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays. Da f**k is dat?

Recognizing something that smells funny is a part of our process and in that regard, this one sticks out. Ryan Yarborough (LHP - KC) has a dead arm. He’s appeared in nine games, two as a starter, and has 12 K’s in 21 frames with seven walks issued. He’s been hit hard too. Now factor in multiple trips to AAA last year and a shift to bulk relief role, it's clear his standing took a hit. Yarborough’s slowly fading K% caps his value. Dude is now 31 years old and missed significant time last year for separate IL stints for groin tightness in April and a strained oblique in September and October. He has a 7.40/5.44 ERA/xERA split this year.

We predicate future performance not just on tools and not just on what a player is doing now even as these data make up a significant amount of future value variance. We also place these things in the context of performance over time. And that, dear reader, is the major "hold up, wait a minute" regarding Miller, who might seem like he shot out of a cannon from near nowhere into serious baseball consciousness but these frighteningly elite tools and exceptional performances, however brief, have been there all along.

6'5" and 220 pounds, the Pittsburgh native was drafted out of Gardner-Webb University in 2021 in the 3rd round by Oakland, where he put together a dominant senior season over 92.2 IP. A shoulder strain delayed his professional debut until the end of '22 where he only got in 14 innings alongside 16.2 electric innings in the AFL this offseason. The 24-year-old Miller came in with two dominant pitches in his 70-grade four-seamer that tickles 102 mph and sits 99/100 and a 60-grade 88-mph slider.

Here in 2023 he's looking like a batter's worst nightmare with 19 K, 0 BB, and 2 H over 8.2 merciless innings across Double- and Triple-A. So disrespectful of batters has been Miller's performance that Oakland has not just called him up but also stated he's up for the foreseeable future even though he's only tallied 28.2 innings in the minors. There's little left for him to prove there. In 15 innings at this level, Miller has 17 K’s in his three starts and is coming off a gem against the Mariners. The Royals are next. Don't be surprised to find Miller shut down well before the season's conclusion if he remains healthy but this is an absolute Dude who has huge upside that is absolutely worth getting behind before the market knows who he is.

Sherwood

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