Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -1½ +158 BET365 -1½ +150 Sportsinteraction -1½ +149 888Sport -1½ +150

Miami -1½ +158 over Chicago

2:20 PM EST. A rookie with 61 innings pitched at this level cannot be evenly priced against last year’s Cy Young winner but here we are. Hayden Wesneski (RHP - CHC) went 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA in 33 innings last year for the Cubs after being dealt from the NYY at the deadline and was promoted to the majors shortly thereafter. Despite mediocre velocity, Wesneski has gotten strikeouts at every level including 33 K’s in 33 innings at this level last year but now that there’s film on him and MLB hitters are more familiar, generating K’s has become much more difficult this year where Wesneski has a mere 17 K’s in 28 frames with a weak 8% swing and miss rate. He also has a 4.86 xERA after six starts.

After six starts, Sandy Alcantara has an ERA of 5.09, which is why he’s so underpriced here. A close look shows that Alcantara comes in with a very unlucky 59.4% strand rate. Once that inevitably normalizes, his ERA will drop significantly. Alcantara hasn’t lost a beat from last year’s great performance. He’s throwing 98 MPH. He has 24 K’s over his past 27 innings. His groundball rate in last two starts was 53% and his xERA over his last three starts is 3.44. A combo of strong skills and "AAA" reliability make him a fine bet here against a rookie that is not in the same class.

Sherwood

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