Posted at 10:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +196 BET365 +205 Sportsinteraction +196 888Sport +205

Cincinnati +205 over San Diego

9:40 PM EST. The Reds have little to do with this play, as this is a fade on the globe-trotting Padres, but Cincinnati serves us well here as a plucky pooch with Luke Weaver (RHP - CIN) on the bump. Weaver has just two starts under his belt this season, but the eight punchouts he racked up over 5.2 innings last Tuesday versus Texas were very encouraging.

Last year, groin tightness delayed the start of Blake Snell’s (LHP - SD) season until mid-May, and kept him from finding a groove until the second half. His recent injury history makes him way too risky to pay anything close to ace prices to get behind him. This year looks no different than last, as he’s struggling miserably with control, which has led to a WHIP of 1.93 and an xERA of 6.43. Snell has walked 17 batters over his past 17 innings. You cannot succeed at this level when you’re consistently walking guys and falling behind in the count, as evidenced by his first-pitch strike rate of a lousy 49%. Frustrated, aging, and struggling, Snell is great fade material in a challenging situational spot for the Padres.

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