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+125  +120   +125

Posted at 1:45 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati +125 over Milwaukee

8:10 PM EST. First of all, any time an undrafted free agent makes it to the majors as a starting pitcher, you've got to show some love. Jason Alexander (RHP - MIL) started six games for Long Beach State in 2014 and then didn't pitch again for two years before popping up at Menlo College in the NAIA. He pitched well but didn't garner enough interest to get drafted in 2017. The Angels saw something of interest and gave him enough burn to rise to Triple-A by 2019, but a 9.36 ERA in 50 IP had him released. He would pop up next with the Marlins and again flop out of the organization though his surface stats improved markedly from 2019. Milwaukee took a chance on him this year and he's performed serviceably. Alexander has a four-pitch mix with a mid-90s sinker, change, curve, and slider, though he relies heavily on the sinker. Nothing here is remarkable, and the swing and miss rate is a puny 6%, which is why he has a lousy 37 K’s in 63 innings with 26 walks issued. He has an ERA/xERA split of 5.05/6.04. Jason Alexander should go back to hanging out with Jerry, Elaine and Kramer. Today’s he’s favored in the same range as Carlos Rodon, Ross Stripling and Lucas Giolito and frankly, it’s absurd.

Nicholas Lodolo (LHP CIN) has put together a solid rookie season and is coming off six shutout innings with nine strikeouts versus the Rockies. With his upper-tier 13.5% swing and miss rate, Lodolo takes on a Brewers’ team that has struggled tremendously versus LHP. Since August 1, the Brewers are striking out nearly 29% of the time versus LHP with a .201 batting average and horrible 84 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created). If we lose this one, it’ll be a real shame because it is very inaccurately priced.