Oakland @ Texas
Oakland +140 over Texas

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Oakland +140 over Texas

8:05 PM EST. Do we like Oakland? No. Do we like James Kaprielian (RHP - OAK)? Absolutely, we do not, as his skills are nothing to get excited about. In fact, he’s issued four or more free passes on four occasions. The velocity on Kaprielian’s four-seamer is up but his Whiff% on the pitch has dropped from 27.8% a season ago to 16.6% this year, while his Whiff% on the curve (13% usage) has slipped from 20.7% to 10.9%. His swing & miss rate supports a little better K% than his current 16% mark, but there are no signs of a return to anywhere close to last year's 25%. A low H% has helped him maintain a somewhat respectable ERA. In his successful July, he had luck on his side with a 21% hit-rate, 85% strand rate, and 5% HR/F that helped mask a 4.93 xERA for the month.

Kaprielian was decent in his first lengthy exposure to big league hitters in 2021 and at least looked like he could be a decent starter for years to come. While his slider is still an effective weapon (34.1% Whiff% for the second straight year), the skills have taken a turn for the worse this season. He is missing fewer bats and struggling with his control, and it was simply a run of good luck that drove his success over the past month.

We would recommend selling on Kaprielian if the A’s were favored but they’re not. Instead, a starter that is no better than Kaprielian is favored in the -160 range range, which is our prompt to step in. Glen Otto Jr (RHP - TEX) must be faded when he’s priced in this absurd range. In 83 frames, covering 17 lousy starts, Otto has four wins, eight losses, a 1.42 WHIP and a 5.20/4.69 ERA/xERA split. Today he’s favored like he’s pitching for the Dodgers. Throw in a 9.6% swing and miss rate and 43 walks issued in said 83 frames and we’ll once again question why the Rangers with Otto starting are priced in this range.

Our Pick

Oakland +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)

Boston -1½ +155 over Baltimore