Today's Free Picks for
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Colorado -1½ +200 over Cleveland
3:10 PM EST. We’re not going to pretend that Chad Kuhl (RHP - COL) is the focus of this play because he is not. Rather, we are employing a strategy that we highlighted a few seasons ago, which is to back the pooch at Coors on the reverse run line. This is a ballpark that posts the highest totals night after night and more often than not, the winner of the game will win by two runs or more. This is not a strategy that we play blindly, as we are always adapting, but it is one that we keep in our back pockets for days like today.
Triston McKenzie (RHP - CLE) is not built for Coors Field. First, his weak 29.2% ground ball rate is the most glaring red flag on his profile this afternoon. That thin, skunky mountain air is not kind to those who cannot initiate groundball contact. Moreover, McKenzie has been incredibly lucky with a Batting Average of Balls in Play of just .176, which means he’s getting a lot of help from the gloves behind him. Finally, McKenzie sports an xERA that is almost a full run higher than his surface number of 3.09. As we stated at the top of this write-up, there is great value in targeting an unsuspecting road favorite that sends out a pitcher that figures to have a bad time in Denver. The Baseball Team and McKenzie fit that to a T.
Colorado -1½ +200 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.00)