Milwaukee @ N.Y. Mets
N.Y. Mets -1 +160 over Milwaukee

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smallbet365 -1½ +160 small888  -1½ +155

Posted at 2:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

N.Y. Mets -1½ +160 over Milwaukee

7:10 PM EST. Aaron Ashby (LHP - MIL) will head out for the Brewers, who are trying to turn things around after a 2-8 run over their last 10 games. A 10-2 win last night might point to such a scenario, but we are going to trust that is not the case. Ashby is no Corbin Burnes, as he’s moved back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen this season. The lefty has made four straight starts going back to May 25, but he has not fared well in his last two trips. In his last start, in Washington on Friday, Ashby was lit up for six earned runs on 13 hits while striking out just two over 4.2 innings pitched. Prior to that, Ashby gave up four earned runs over six innings against the Padres. Ashby’s biggest liability this season has been his propensity to walk batters at a high 4.09 BB/9 clip. When Asby graduated, he was pegged to be a reliever because of his control issues. Yes, he’s got some nice numbers in other areas that we value, but when you constantly put batters on base unnecessarily, you are always swimming upstream. Until Ashby figures the control part of this game out, he’s going to be a liability.

We backed the Mets yesterday and tore up that ticket. However, we also backed Tylor Megill (RHP - NYM) in his last start. Although he did not factor into the decision, we cashed that ticket and see no reason not to try and keep the good times rolling with Megill tonight, as he appeared to not miss a beat after a stint on the DL. In his limited time (3.1 innings) against the Angels, Megill struck out four and issued just one free pass. Megill has now made eight starts this season, but if you remove the outing in which he was injured, he’s been incredible. 40 strikeouts in 36.2 innings with just nine walks. That’s good stuff. Really good. Megill's numbers are marred by that one disastrous outing back on May 11 and because of that, he’s undervalued and underpriced here as the betting favorite. We’re sticking with it and are coming right back on the Mets tonight and we’re not going to be shy about laying the -1½.

Our Pick

N.Y. Mets -1 +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)

Cincinnati +160 over Philadelphia
Oakland +140 over Texas
L.A. Angels +101 over Seattle