Cleveland @ Detroit
Detroit +140 over Cleveland

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Posted at 1:00 PM EST and are subject to change. 

Detroit +140 over Cleveland

4:10 PM EST. Shane Bieber (RHP - CLE) continues to be overpriced despite a downward trend in some key metrics. Bieber made his bread as strikeout wizard, but here in 2022, his strikeout rate is now on a three year decline. It peaked at 14.20 K/9 in 2020, 12.48 in 2021 and now it’s just 9.07 here in 2022. If one is looking for a reason for the steady decline in Bieber’s strikeouts, one only needs to look at the velocity of his fastball, as it peaked in 2020 (94.3) before dropping to 92.9 in 2021. That fastball is down to just 91.2 this season.

Another metric that points to Bieber’s eroding skills is one for those who like to really dig deep. Coined, Strikes + Whiffs (CSW%), this stat removes foul balls from a pitcher's strike count while keeping the rest. Bieber has been one of the poorest performers in CSW% over last season, which we already know was worse than his season prior. To summarize—dude is considered an ace and he’s priced like it. 

Alex Faedo (RHP - DET) has the pedigree (1st round pick in 2017) and he’s under the radar on a spunky Tigers side that is off the grid in this market. Faedo is still on the way back from Tommy John surgery, but he’s shown flashes of all that pre-draft hype that made him a top selection. In his last start against this Baseball Team, Faedo worked through a tough first inning and overcame that obstacle. You love to see that in a young pitcher. Remember, this is just Faedo’s sixth MLB start.

These two pitchers actually met in that prior meeting in a game we wagered on back on May 22, which we cashed. Detroit was a +165 pooch in Cleveland that day and now they are taking back a nice price at home this afternoon. We see little reason not to come right back on the Tigers in the rematch of sorts.

Our Pick

Detroit +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto