Cincinnati @ Toronto
Cincinnati +160 over Toronto

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Odds posted at 12:45 PM EST and are subject to change. 

Cincinnati +160 over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. We’re playing the Reds daily until May 26. We began backing the Reds on May 10 and so far we are 5-3. This is Game 9 of 16 of our continuous play on the Reds and here is today’s pitching matchup:

Lusi Castillo (RHP - CIN) has made just two starts this year. In 10 innings, he has struck out 7, walked 4 and posted a 5.59/4.44 ERA/xERA split. It’s a very small sample. Last year, Castillo posted a 7.22 ERA through May, then 2.73 from June onward. xERA smooths that out, as monthly levels were all between 3.22 and 4.96. The case against him as an ace has long hinged on his WHIP/xWHIP. Higher WHIP=more runners, thus more chances to be burned by strand rates. Bottom line: he is what his career xERA history (3.74) says he is.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP - TOR) has made three weak starts this year covering a lousy 12 frames. Now entering his age-35 season, note the multi-year decline in skills, as highlighted by xERA. The latter took a more notable jump in 2021 and has continued into this year, thus reflecting the lowest K rate he's managed since his first MLB season. His swing and miss rate this year is below replacement level. His ERA is 9 and his xERA is 5.57. His groundball rate remains elite at 57% so he’ll once again be at the mercy of his BABIP and defense.

Our Pick

Cincinnati +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto