Chicago @ Kansas City
Kansas City +120 over Chicago

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Odds posted at 1:30 PM EST and are subject to change.

Kansas City +120 over Chicago

2:10 PM EST. We apologize for overlooking the Royals yesterday, but we’re sticking with the strategy of backing these undervalued teams for an extended period of time. We’ve saved many units this week just by passing on games we’d otherwise have played if this strategy was not employed.

We locked in on Kansas City on May 10 and we are riding the Royals up until May 24th when they conclude a two-game set in Arizona. Since we started backing them daily, we are 3-4. This is Game 9 of 14 in which we'll get behind the Royals.

Here are today’s starting pitchers:

Vince Velasquez (RHP - CWS) has been consistently inconsistent over the years. That’s continued on the South Side of Chicago. Velasquez is 2-3 this season with an ERA of 5.53, but that surface number might be a little flattering, as his xERA is 6.63. A low ground ball rate has always followed Velasquez and that is true here in 2022 (33.7%). When the weather warms up, a number like that is going to get a guy in trouble. Over the last four years, Velasquez has been a borderline replacement player. That’s true here in 2022, as he ranks a negative -0.1 in Wins Against Replacement, but the White Sox are paying him $3-million this season. He’s going to pitch.

Carlos Hernandez (RHP - KC) is coming off a rough outing, but that it was in Coors Field allows for some forgiveness, regardless, we are not picking and choosing. If we were, Hernandez would be a tough bet. Hernandez is 0-3 with a bloated ERA of 9.11. The big 6’4” righty does sports an xERA of 6.27, which suggests that he’s had some bad luck out there. His .361 average on Batting Average on Balls in Play also suggests as much. The dude could use a little more help from the gloves behind him.

Our Pick

Kansas City +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto