Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Cincinnati +110 over Cleveland

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Odds posted at 12:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Cincinnati +110 over Cleveland

1:10 PM EST. We wrote this game up yesterday, but it was rained out. Nothing has changed and we are sticking with it. We’re playing the Reds daily until May 26. We began backing the Reds on May 10 and so far we are 4-3. This is Game 8 of 16 of our continuous play on the Reds and here is today’s pitching matchup:

We’re still trying to figure out what’s driving Cal Quantrill’s (RHP - CLE) 3.93 ERA. It’s not his 15/20 BB/K split in 34 frames. That’s horrible. It’s not his 39% groundball rate. It’s not his 7.4% swing and miss rate and it’s not his 67% strand rate. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is .257, which is below league average so that is part of it. The other part is pure luck because his skills are horrible. He's overvalued because of his surface ERA, which his xERA (5.66) vehemently disagrees with. Win or lose this wager, Cal Quantrill should be on your fade radar because his ass is going to show up horseshoe-less very soon.

Tyler Mahle (RHP - CIN) is the opposite of Quantrill. Mahle shows up today with a 5.89 ERA after eight starts. That’s after striking out an elite 40 batters in 37 frames with 18 walks issued. His first-pitch strike rate is good so expect those BB’s/9 to decrease quite a bit. Mahle's skills keep improving (30% K%, 14.7% swing & miss rate, BB%, 3.88 xERA) but the results have not.

Our Pick

Cincinnati +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto