Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Detroit +243 over Tampa Bay

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Posted at 2:00 PM EST.

Detroit +243 over Tampa Bay

6:40 PM EST. Back before the season started, we hinted at a new strategy that we started employing last week. We’re going to be targeting teams to either fade or get behind and we’re going to play those teams every day for a specified amount of time, whether it’s one week (minimum) or 4 weeks (there is no maximum). We’ll assess that team after the allotted time and decide whether to abort or continue based on value, performance and other factors.

With baseball being a game of streaks, as well as peaks and valleys, we’re going to try and establish teams in line for regression or improvement. We’re going to try and get these undervalued teams at the right time. This strategy will allow us to cash in on games like this for instance when the starting pitching heavily favors the chalk but the underdog wins. Last night we were able to collect on Detroit at +173 and we’ll continue with it here.

For 17 straight games and ending with a three-game set against Minnesota on June 2, we’ll be playing the Tigers daily. Detroit will be an underdog all three games in Tampa, then it’s 15 straight games against both Minnesota and Cleveland where the Tigers will be a dog in most of them and only a slight favorite at home in the others. This is game 2 of 17 in anticipation of Detroit winning more games than they lose over that span.

Here are today’s starters:

Shane McClanahan (RHP - TB) could easily be deemed the best pitcher in baseball at the moment. His skills have been sensational (2.02 xERA, 61% grounders, 13.3 K’s/9). Today those elite skills are combined with a dream matchup, as the opposing Tigers average 2.1 runs per game on the road while having a .548 OPS.

Beau Brieske (RHP - DET) allowed three runs (two earned) across six innings and did not factor into the decision Thursday against the Athletics. He walked three and struck out two. He’ll make his second start and fourth overall appearance. Credit to Brieske for grinding out a solid start after allowing 3 in the first inning. In fact, he has had a knack for settling down with a 7.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in the first two innings (36 batters faced) of his four starts and then a 1.38 ERA/1.00 WHIP from the 3rd on (51 batters faced).

These are exactly the type of games that one would have a hard time getting behind if one were to focus on starters. Even the best starters in the game will be hard pressed to win 13-15 games a year in 35-40 starts, which is another reason our strategy should yield profits over the long haul.



Our Pick

Detroit +243 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.86)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto