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Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

Pittsburgh +135 over Chicago

7:40 PM EST. The Cubs, with Wade Miley (LHP - CHC) starting, cannot be favored like Fergie Jenkins is starting and Harry Caray is calling it. Miley has started one game this year and lasted three innings after walking five guys. You might want to read that again…..He walked five in 3 innings and has made one start this year.

Miley was activated from the injured list (elbow) on May 10 to make that start. Last year, his best season since 2012 was driven by luck or what is better known as an 80% strand rate. His 2nd half shows how little room for error there is, as it only took small drops in K% and groundballs to push his xERA, and his xWHIP to alarming levels. Velocity trend, older pitcher, IL time in each of the last five years is lot of risk for a guy who's favored in this range pitching for a weak team.

In a small sample size during 2021, Dillon Peters (LHP - PIT) flashed an 11.7% swing and miss rate and 33% ball%, a level of whiffs and strikes that are aligned with a very good 19% xK-BB%. His role has not been established yet (10 appearances this year, three starts) but he’s willing to do what the team is asking of him and has not looked a bit out of place in any role. He has 15 K’s in 20 innings with 9 walks issued so throwing strikes has to be essential for any pitcher at this level. He has a nice 4.08 xERA but Peters just happens to be the Pirates starter today. This wager is all about fading Wade Miley at an absurd price.