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San Francisco -105 over St. Louis
2:15 PM EST. It’s rarely a bad idea to fade a pitcher that can’t find the strike zone and that applies here to Dakota Hudson (RHP - STL). Hudson has a nifty looking surface ERA of 3.56 but his xERA is 5.88. That weak xERA is largely due to Hudson’s weak BB/K split of 15/18 in 30 innings. If not for a fortunate 80% strand rate, we’d be looking at an ugly ERA and then he and the Cards would likely not be favored here. It’s getting worse too. Hudson failed to strike out a single batter in his last start with a swing and miss rate of 2.4%.
Jakob Junis (RHP - SF) put up some good skills in 2021 (4.12 xERA) behind some ugly surface stats (5.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 39 frames). Those skills jumped significantly in a starting role. In 15 innings with his new team, Junis has walked just three batters while striking out 15 which has led to a 1.32/3.32 ERA/xERA split. Thus, what we have here is one starter that cannot throw strikes against another that is constantly ahead in the count.
San Francisco -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)