Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati -1 +145 over Pittsburgh

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Odds posted at 10:45 AM EST and are subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ +145 over Pittsburgh

6:35 PM EST. The Reds are a play daily until May 26. We began backing the Reds on May 10 and so far we are 3-1. Unfortunately the Reds are a slight favorite today (-115) but we refuse to spot a price in any sport so we’ll therefore play the Reds on the run line at this price you see here.

This is Game 5 of 16 of our continuous play on the Reds and here is today’s pitching matchup:

Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) has only made one start this year. That occurred five days ago when Castillo tossed 4.2 innings, surrendered three runs on three hits and three walks while striking out five in Cinci's win over the Brewers. He did not factor into the decision. Last season, Castillo posted a 7.22 ERA through May, then 2.73 from June onward. xERA smooths that out, as monthly levels were all between 3.22 and 4.96. The case against him as an ace has long hinged on his weaker WHIP/xWHIP. Higher WHIP=more runners, thus more chances for strand rates to burn him but make no mistake that he’s great when he’s on his game.

Zach Thompson (RHP - PIT) allowed two hits over five shutout innings in last Sunday's loss to the Reds. He struck out six and did not factor in the decision. It was by far his best outing of the year but he still has an ERA of 7.08. There is no question that Thompson has been unlucky and is in line for some serious improvement but that’s a story for another day. We’ll put Thompson on our radar and wait for the next time he and the Pirates are taking back a nice tag.

Rays magic: Squeezing out the most IP and games started SINCE 2007. Outpitched estimators again, and though skills rebounded from 2020, the trends are in decline just about everywhere?as you'd expect at his age. Volume, then, becomes even more important, and that's not exactly his strong suit. This time, know the hat could end up rabbit-less.



Our Pick

Cincinnati -1 +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto