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Boston +100 over Texas

7:05 PM EST. We’re going to mostly ignore the starting pitching matchup here, as this is more predicated on Boston beating Texas. The Red Sox came in here last night and cruised to a 7-1 victory for their second win in the past three games after a five-game losing streak and a dismal start.

One of the reasons for the slow start was due to Enrique Hernández, Trevor Story, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Bobby Dalbec struggling at the plate. Story has also been erratic in the field, committing several costly throwing errors at the keystone. First base has predictably turned into a black hole, with the team once more giving Franchy Cordero meaningful playing time at the expense of the floundering Dalbec and the already abandoned Travis Shaw. We pointed out yesterday that another reason the Red Sox have underperformed to date has been their performance in close games. The Sox have played in a league-leading five extra-inning contests thus far and have somehow managed to lose all of them. They are just 3-7 in one-run games overall.

Despite holes at first base, catcher, and right field, the rest of the lineup is potent enough that it should carry the Sox to at least a top-12 finish. We wrote yesterday not to wait for the Red Sox to inevitably heat up and we’ll continue with that position today.

As for the starters, here they are in case you need it.

Glenn Otto (RHP - TEX) hasn't produced good skills during his three starts with Texas in 2022, largely due to control issues (11% BB%) that have been driven by a 53% first-pitch strike rate and 39% ball%. Still, his combination of whiffs (12.9% swing and miss rate) and groundballs (50%) gives him a unique foundation. Still, Otto has only lasted a combined 14 innings over three starts with a BB/K split of 6/12.

Rich Hill (LHP - BOS) was placed on the COVID-19 list back on May 6th but he’s ready to get back to work. It used to be that if a pitcher was still in the majors at 42 years old, his name was either Wakefield, Niekro, Dickey, Hough or Candiotti. If you know who Riki Choshu is, you’ll understand that. Even if you don’t know who Chosu is, you may still understand that. In any event, Rich Hill is 42 and has 17 K’s in 22 innings with seven walks issued.

In this day and age of feast or famine hitters, Rich Hill can keep these free swinging batters off balance with his unique skills. At least that’s what we’re hoping for but we’ll repeat that this is a play on Boston to beat Texas and not on Rich Hill to mow down anyone.