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Washington +150 over NY Mets

1:05 PM EST. With baseball being a game of streaks, as well as peaks and valleys, we’re going to try and establish teams in line for regression or improvement before the market adjustment comes. Of course we’ll have other games too, like always, but we’ll definitely be targeting teams to fade or get behind.

This is our third day of either targeting teams or fading them and we’ll continue here. We targeted the Nationals to get behind for six straight days and thus far, Washington is 1-1 with a profit of 1.50 units. Therefore, we’ll be playing the Nats again today and every game this weekend when they host the Astronauts Friday, Saturday and Sunday. After that, we’ll reassess the situation and decide if we are going to move forward.

Here is the pitching matchup breakdown in case you’re interested.

Joan Adon (RHP - WAS) turned heads years ago after touching 100-mph out of the bullpen for Washington but progressed slowly until last season, where the 6'2", 246-pound 23-year-old opened at high Single-A Wilmington. After 87 innings there, he'd log short bursts at Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Rochester before his October start where he dominated a tough Red Sox lineup, striking out 9 batters in 5.1 frames. Adon works mid-90s but reaches back for high 90s when he needs it. The fastball is a plus pitch and he works north-south with it well. Adon's slider and changeup hover around average-to-above-average, and growth on the breaking ball has upped his projection as a rotation regular. With so little time above Single-A (18.0 IP) in the minors, it's likely that he needs more seasoning, but he’s impressed enough to stick for now.

Adon has a 6.99/5.20 ERA/xERA split. He’s walked 18 batters in 27 innings with 28 K’s so his xERA is largely predicated on his inability to hit the strike zone. However, his first-pitch strike rate is trending up so there’s that. He’s also learning on the go so there are risks to be sure but that is no concern to us.

Taijuan Walker (RHP - NYM) threw roughly 65 pitches during a simulated game on Monday, April 25. He then returned to the starting rotation on Saturday, April 30, against the Phillies in which he allowed two hits in five frames. Five days later against the Phillies again, Walker allowed seven runs (six earned) on nine hits and two walks while striking out two across four innings. Which version we get today is anyone’s guess.

Last season, Walker picked up where he left off in 2020, then BAM... it all unraveled as Ks vanished and strand % and HR/F flipped in the 2nd half. Prior to July 1 of last year, Walker had a 2.61 ERA and a 3.84 xERA. After July 1, Walker had a 6.88 ERA, and a 5.17 xERA. We have no idea if he’s just warming up or if he’s in trouble but it’s absolutely worth noting that in three starts this year, he’s only logged 11 innings so the Mets are being cautious with him. He’s unlikely to go past four frames here.