N.Y. Yankees @ Chicago
Chicago -1 +140 over N.Y. Yankees

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Odds posted at 11:45 AM EST and are subject to change.

Chicago -1½ +140 over N.Y. Yankees

8:10 PM EST. The beat goes on for the feast or famine Yankees after they swept a brief two-game set over the Blue Jays to run their record to 22-8. Our fade beat goes on too because this is not a 22-8 team. This is a team that hits home-runs and hopes men are on base. That has worked out so far but a massive correction to the negative is awaiting. 

Our fade on the Yanks started on May 10 and will last a total of 29 games. It’ll end after a three game set in Minnesota on June 9th at which time we will reassess and decide if we’ll continue or abort. 

Chicago is -150 tonight. There is zero chance of us spotting 7½-5 in anything, therefore we’ll have to play the South Side on the run-line. 

Coming into 2022, Luis Gil (RHP - NYY) was considered one of the top, if not the top, pitching prospect in the Yankees organization, and things have not gone well for the young Dominican as we creep into summer. 6'2" and 185 pounds, Gil entered the Yankees system via trade with the Twins for Jake Cave in 2018. Everything starts for Gil with his huge, plus plus fastball. The pitch sits 96, touches 100, and he can hold that velocity deep into games. Alone the fastball sets his floor as a major league reliever and a leveraged one. His breaking ball, which was initially called a curve but has slider velocity in the mid-80s with a more curveball-like shape, is an above-average pitch, and that one-two-combo would work well in the back of a bullpen. 

Gil's change-up has always lagged, and it's worth noting that the Yankees have not pressed development of the pitch, hinting that he may internally be destined for the bullpen, though they keep trotting him out as a starter and it's the role he'll fill here. 

He was initially stellar upon his promotion last year, but soon after devolved back to his 40-grade control. That has been the story to start 2022 at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, as Gil has 12 BB in 17 frames. More concerning are the 5 jacks allowed and 28.9%/31.1%/40.0% grounders/line-drives/fly-ball slash in the same period of time, though his xERA (4.36) is five full runs lower than his actual ERA (9.54). His swing and miss rate isn't inspiring confidence either at 12.7%, though these are all over a small sample size. However, these numbers are starting to look more trend than fluke over his time in the high minors. All of this to say is that Gil has a powerful arm that has major league value. However, poor command while trying to develop a third pitch that lags badly is not an equation that spits out success.  

Dylan Cease (RHP - CHW) had a really good April (3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 22 innings) and two very good starts in May. His skills were strong as well: 30% K%, 11% BB%, 20% K-BB%, 51% grounders and a sweet xERA of 3.12 A deeper look reveals even more reasons for optimism. In addition to generating plenty of groundballs, Cease is missing tons of bats (15.5%) while throwing strikes (34% ball%). And when batters did make contact against him, their batted balls were of poor quality. Let’s see how many three run jacks the Yanks get tonight. Not.

Our Pick

Chicago -1 +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto